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United States Climate Data
Here we present charts on future climate conditions.
Last updated:
Saturday, December 3, 2011 10:49 AM
These charts may come from a variety of sources.
Since these charts come from a variety of sources, I think you can draw your own conclusions based on what you see.
See a climate graphic somewhere? Send me a link: Climate data
Global Warming got you worried? See these videos..
For Global Warming believers:
Replicating Al Gore's Climate 101 video experiment shows that
his "high school physics" could never work as advertised - Watts Up with that
2011 Much Cooler Than 2010 So Far - GWFP
Every Day In 2011 Has Been Cooler Than 2010 - Real Science - For global warming believers
Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Resigns Over Global Warming – Fox News
Sea Level Continues Its Historic Decline - Real Science
Winter 2011- 2012 Outlook - Accuweather.com
Dec 1 Update
The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team still expects a stormy winter for the U.S. with the worst in terms of snow and cold targeting the Midwest and interior Northwest.
Big Midwestern cities, such as Chicago and Minneapolis, will lie in the heart of this zone.
While the worst of winter will be focused over the Midwest and Northwest, it does not mean other parts of the country are off the hook.
Above-normal snowfall is also forecast for the interior Northeast and northern New England.
A region-by-region breakdown is given after the following discussion on factors behind the forecast.
Factors Behind the Forecast
A weak to moderate La Niña is a key factor in the 2011-2012 Winter Forecast.
"La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Heather Buchman stated in the initial release of the 2011-2012 Winter Forecast.
La Niña winters feature a stronger northern jet stream, an area of strong winds high above the Earth's surface. This positioning and strength of the jet stream over the northern portion of North America tends to cause storms to track across the northern tier of the U.S., spelling harsh winters from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Typically, the southern tier of the U.S. ends up mild and dry during a La Niña winter. However, there will be some exceptions this year with wet weather anticipated for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Another big factor in the winter forecast is the potential for a blocking pattern to develop with the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, possibly turning negative for a time. This essentially means that a large area of high pressure could set up over Greenland, forcing cold blasts to reach the eastern U.S.
"The lack of sea ice has been believed to contribute to the development of blocking. This past summer and early fall, sea ice reached near-record low levels," according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Winter Still Looking Brutal for the Midwest
Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, still thinks Old Man Winter will leave the biggest impression on the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Midwest.
It will be a snowier-than-usual season for the Midwest, which will lie to the north and west of the frequent storm track, or in the "sweet spot" of the storms.
Typical of a La Niña year, the harshest cold will blast the northern Plains and northern Rockies. Although this may be the case this season, cold air masses will sink farther south and east at times.
One thing that has changed with AccuWeather.com's initial Winter 2011-2012 Forecast is the expectation for a cold December in the Midwest and Northeast. The frequency and period of arctic cold is lower than earlier expected.
Therefore, temperatures for the winter season as a whole are predicted to average slightly higher for the Midwest and Northeast with December not being quite so cold.
Minneapolis and Chicago lie in the heart of where the worst of winter is expected with above-normal snowfall and colder-than-normal conditions predicted. Cold blasts will be longer lasting from late December into January.
Snowfall will be well above normal for cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland and possibly Pittsburgh.
Farther south, closer to the storm track, some icing events can occur along the Ohio River on southwest into northeastern Texas. Pastelok stressed that this will be most likely during January.
Forecasts by Region
Northeast Not Off the Hook
Pastelok pointed out that this winter in the Northeast will likely lack substantial rounds of long-lasting arctic cold. However, there can still be cold snaps with below-normal temperatures. Overall, temperatures are expected to average out near to slightly above normal.
With a storm track favoring more storms cutting across the interior, above-normal snowfall is more likely across the interior Northeast.
Snowfall amounts were bumped up into the above-normal range farther south and east across New England, following the recent historic late-October snowstorm.
In the updated forecast, near-normal lake-effect snow will fall around the eastern Great Lakes. However, snow amounts could still end up above normal in this zone from storms cutting away from the coastal Northeast.
With a storm track farther north and west compared to last year, snowfall will be near to below normal for the highly populated I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Stormy weather is still expected, but there will be more events with a wintry mix or a changeover to rain. More on the Northeast below
Southeast Looking Chillier than Previously Expected
Bring out the jackets and hats, because it is looking cooler than previously thought for the interior Southeast in December. The nights will be exceptionally chilly.
After December, however, temperatures are expected to climb higher in January and February, as an area of high pressure is expected to set up along the Southeast coast and pump milder air from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the region.
In general, Winter 2011-2012 is expected to be milder than last winter in the Southeast. There will be a low chance for a damaging freeze in the citrus area this year.
"Florida looks drier than normal," Pastelok said. "The farther north and west you travel, the wetter it gets."
"Watch for potential flooding in the Lower Mississippi," warned Pastelok.
An active storm track around the northern and western periphery of high pressure dominating the Southeast will allow above-normal precipitation to fall in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The severe weather season could begin picking up in the Mississippi Valley and perhaps eastern Texas and Oklahoma in February. In March, severe weather will become more likely in this zone, which was hit hard by tornadoes in the spring.
"Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, which were devastated by tornadoes in the spring, will be extremely sensitive to any severe weather outbreaks," stated Buchman in the initial Winter 2011-2012 Forecast.
Southwest and Southern Plains Divided between Stormy and Dry
"There can be a few ice events," Pastelok warned about northeastern Texas and the Mid- and Lower Mississippi Valley from late December to January.
Elsewhere across the Southwest, dry and mild weather will rule. This is typical of a La Niña winter, where the storm track is much farther north across the U.S.
Unfortunately, drier-than-normal weather will persist from the interior Southwest into southwestern Texas, an area still in desperate need of rain.
The U.S. Drought Monitor release on Nov. 22, 2011 revealed that nearly 65 percent of Texas is still being gripped by severe drought conditions and nearly 40 percent of the state is in an exceptional drought, the highest level.
"The lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas and western Texas into New Mexico will run the warmest and driest for the nation through the winter season," Pastelok said.
Winter Looking Wetter for California, Still Stormy for Northwest
The 2011-2012 Winter Forecast was updated to show even more rain and snow for northern and central California with the Pacific jet stream expected to hover over this area for most of the winter season.
Farther inland, this winter is expected to be another active one for the northern Sierra and interior Northwest with above-normal snowfall forecast.
In contrast, the Pacific Northwest, including much of Washington and western Oregon, will get some breaks from the wet weather.
"Watch for a 'Pineapple Connection' during the mid- to late season that will send some areas well-above-normal precipitation," Pastelok said. This means "snow in the mountains and rain and mudslides in the valleys."
Also known as the "Pineapple Express," the Pineapple Connection is a phenomenon that occurs when a strong, persistent flow of tropical moisture sets up from the Hawaiian Islands to the West Coast of the U.S. This phenomenon often leads to excessive rain and incredible snow events.
Despite the on again, off again stormy weather for the Pacific Northwest, rather than a constant storm train, the region will not be spared winter's blow. Pastelok added that bitter cold blasts will invade northern areas, especially during the mid- to late season.
After being active early in the season, there will be less precipitation in Seattle and Portland, Ore., later on. However, both of these cities could get cold for a time with arctic air penetrating from the north and east.
More on the Northeast:
Northeast Not Off the Hook with Winter Forecast Update
A frequent storm track across the interior Northeast means more snow for the interior Northeast and northern New England and more changeover events for the big I-95 cities.
The AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast update is not too different from the initial winter forecast release.
However, Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, expects some changes following a mild November for most.
Breakdown of the Updates to the Northeast Winter Forecast:
-Temperatures were brought up a bit for the entire region with less frequent, harsh cold spells expected, especially for early December.
-More changeover or mix events expected for I-95 corridor from mid-Atlantic through New England
While temperatures were bumped up in the Northeast with near-normal snowfall expected in the I-95 cities, there will still be some cold snaps. According to Pastelok, the coldest part of the winter should be late December and January.
Normal snowfall in New York City is 28 inches, and Philadelphia's normal snowfall is about 21 inches. Both cities are forecast to receive near or just below-normal snowfall. Boston will receive near-normal snowfall as well following a busy winter last year.
The Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania should also get a near-normal snowfall of around 25-30 inches. State College, Pa., the home of AccuWeather.com Headquarters, will be in the path of near-normal snowfall of 35-45 inches this winter.
More rain with perhaps some wintry mixes are anticipated for Washington, D.C., due to a ridge of high pressure setting up along the Southeast coast and forcing storms farther inland than last year.
Some areas that have already received hefty snowfall in October are in line to get above-normal snowfall for the winter. Some portions of the interior Northeast and northern New England will get above-normal snowfall.
Pittsburgh and Burlington are among the cities that could be hit by above-normal snowfall. Normal snowfall in Pittsburgh is 43 inches.
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NOAA comes out with its Winter Forecast
In the Northeast, Will Flooding Cease?
If the National Weather Service's call for above-average snow in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic is correct, then spring and summer will begin with more flooding for the already-saturated regions.
The ground from Ohio to New Jersey and Virginia will not dry out from its fall soaking before winter comes. The unrelenting rain that put many parts of the Northeast under water makes this one of the wettest years on record. Binghamton, N.Y. and Harrisburg, Pa. have broken their rainfall records, with two months left in the year. New York City is currently having its fourth wettest year ever. By December, New York will likely beat its number-two record.
"The ground is saturated; winter hardens it, then you throw snow on top of it... there could be serious flooding when it melts in the spring," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
In fact, in 2011, the rain broke the record for wettest season in Cleveland, and Cincinnati will have a new rainfall record by the end of the year.
Taking the rainfall so far into account, melting snow and a thawing ground could easily have severe flooding consequences.
Essentially, cold weather will keep moisture frozen in the ground throughout the winter. Therefore, when spring temperatures melt the snow, that water will be added to all the water that will thaw from the ground.
Sosnowski added, "We're expecting a warmer second half of winter, so that could get the ball rolling even earlier than the spring."
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Winter 2011- 2012 Outlook - Accuweather.com
Chicago looks like the worst area
The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niña... yet again.
La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast. Monster blizzards virtually shut down the cities of New York and Chicago. Last winter was one of New York City's snowiest on record.
La Niñas often produce a volatile weather pattern for the Midwest and Northeast during winter due to the influence they have on the jet stream. The graphic below shows the position the jet stream typically takes over the U.S. during La Niña.
The way the jet stream is expected to be positioned during this winter's La Niña will tend to drive storms through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Last year, the jet stream steered storms farther east along the Northeast coast, hammering the Interstate 95 corridor.
Therefore, instead of New York City enduring the worst of winter this year, it will likely be Chicago.
"The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central U.S.," stated Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead.
AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."
While winter's worst may not be focused over the major cities of the Northeast this year, the region will not get by unscathed. Pastelok warns there could be a few significant snow and ice storms that could pack a punch.
Ice events could also be a problem for areas farther south from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians this season, while a significant severe weather threat develops in the Lower Mississippi Valley in February. This threat is extremely concerning for the areas in Mississippi and Alabama that were devastated by tornadoes in the spring.
The West is expected to be split between mild and dry conditions in the Southwest and highly-variable, frequently-changing weather elsewhere.
Chances that Texas pulls out of its epic drought this winter are extremely slim with below-normal precipitation predicted for a large portion of the state.
Forecasts by Region
Northeast
Cold but not quite as bad as last winters cold
Above normal snowfall early next year
Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / Midwest
Some of the worst winter conditions expected in this region
Southeast / Southern Plains
Severe weather is expected
Southwestern Plains / Texas
California and the west
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