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Hurricanes 2009 

2009 Season Report
Hurricane "Season" runs from June 1 through November 30.

Last updated:
Saturday, May 30, 2009 5:43 PM
Let's talk about what the season looks like for the USA....
See the Hurricane Survival Guide
Dr. Willam Gray, Colorado University---Report updated
News story summation
From the Orlando Sentinel
2009 HURRICANE SEASON
2009 hurricane season will be 'normal' season, forecasters say
The 2009 hurricane predictions include up to three major hurricanes.
Anika Myers Palm
Sentinel Staff Writer
5:56 PM EDT, May 21, 2009
Forecasters on Thursday said residents on the East Coast should expect a relatively normal four to seven hurricanes coming out of the Atlantic this storm season but cautioned that it's best to prepare as though there will be more.
The prediction translates to nine to 14 named storms -- and up to three major hurricanes.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said their forecast has a 25-percent margin of error.
An average season includes 11 named storms and six hurricanes, two of them major, according to the climate prediction center's report. The Atlantic Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.
The center's hurricane season outlook does not project paths for storms; weather patterns near the time storms approach will affect tracking and whether the storms will reach land.
The center's predictions closely mirrors one of the other projections for the 2009 hurricane season. In their annual hurricane season report, Colorado State University researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray forecast the season to bring about 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
One factor that could augur for a less-busy hurricane season would be the development of the El Niño climate system in the eastern Pacific Ocean this summer.
Generally, the development of El Nino means warmer surface ocean temperatures in the Pacific, and correlates with a reduced number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
"That generally means increasing wind shear in the Atlantic, which is unfavorable" for more hurricanes, because heat in the air is spread out over a larger area and won't contribute to a storm's development, said Don Van Dyke, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
Because storms feed on heat, lower-than-usual Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures also could contribute separately to a reduced number of developing tropical storms and hurricanes.
But even if an average season is on tap, the overall message from weather experts is simple: Prepare, prepare, prepare.
"Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook," said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the climate prediction center.
The National Hurricane Center's advice is for Floridians to prepare as though they will be hit by at least one storm, because it takes only one storm to make 2009 a bad hurricane season, according to Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the center.
Forecasters at the climate prediction office will issue an update to their hurricane season outlook in August, just before storm activity peaks in the latter part of the season.
Dr. Gray's & Dr. Klotzbach May 2009 Updated forecast
Snippets from the report...
Slides from Dr.'s Gray and Klotzbach presentation
Our last New England Hurricane was "BOB" in 1991.
See what Bob did and get prepared...
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