Your Source for Everything I'm Interested in !!
Hurricanes 2010
2010 Season Report
Hurricane "Season" runs from June 1 through November 30.
Last updated:
Friday, August 6, 2010 8:56 AM
Let's talk about what the season looks like for the USA....
See the Hurricane Survival Guide
Dr. Willam Gray, Colorado University---Report
Forecast Team at Colorado State University Predicts Above-Average 2010 Hurricane Season
8/5/10 - Forecasters say peak of storm season will be busy
NH State Wire
JENNIFER KAY
Published: Yesterday
PENSACOLA, Fla. (AP) - Record high ocean temperatures and the development of a climate phenomenon known as La Nina will keep the Atlantic hurricane season on track to be the busiest since 2005, government forecasters said Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly lowered the outlook it released in May, but an above-normal season was still expected, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Washington.
The updated forecast calls for 14 to 20 named tropical storms, down from a range of 14 to 23. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.
Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes, and four to six of those hurricanes could become major storms, blowing winds of 111 mph or more, forecasters said.
"August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.
Historically during active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much more likely for both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast in the U.S.
The Caribbean also sees a sharp increase in storm activity during such seasons, which is bad news for Haiti, where approximately 1.6 million people continue to live under tarps and tents nearly seven months after a catastrophic earthquake wrecked its capital.
Three named storms have developed since this hurricane season began. Hurricane Alex made landfall June 30 in northern Mexico. Tropical Storm Bonnie forced crews drilling a relief well in the Gulf of Mexico to evacuate last month but petered out.
Tropical Storm Colin regenerated Thursday with 45 mph winds over the open Atlantic, said forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. A tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda.
The May outlook - which called for eight to 14 hurricanes, with possibly three to seven major hurricanes - reflected the possibility of even more storms forming in June and July than actually did, Bell said.
Bell said the update is based on conditions indicating a high-activity era that began in 1995 continues.
"The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place are very conducive to hurricane formation, as we had predicted in May," he said.
A Pacific Ocean phenomenon called La Nina developed in July, reducing wind shear in the Atlantic and making it easier for storms to take shape.
Ocean temperatures are exceptionally high, and the warmest since 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripped into the same part of the Gulf Coast now coping with one of the world's worst oil spills.
Historically, three named tropical storms will spin into the Gulf of Mexico between August and November during above-normal seasons, Bell said. Any impact on the oil remaining in the Gulf from an April 20 rig explosion off Louisiana would depend on a storm's strength and path across the water.
Tropical storms are named when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. They become hurricanes when sustained winds reach 74 mph. Major hurricanes blow at 111 mph or more. The strongest hurricanes are labeled Category 5, with winds greater than 155 mph.
Three hurricanes developed out of nine tropical storms in 2009. None of the hurricanes made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Ida hit Nicaragua as a Category 1 storm in November.
Colorado State University researchers said Wednesday they also expected this year's season to be more active than average with 10 hurricanes, five of them major.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
See the Accuweather forecast below at the bottom of the page
Finally, at the bottom of the page, you'll find a humorous look at hurricane predictions
Snippets from the report...
The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean will begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbean nations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.
The experts are predicting a busier-than-usual hurricane season for 2010. These early forecasts, however, will likely be modified depending on the evolving climactic conditions. If the early forecasts prove to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season will stand in sharp contrast to the relatively mild 2009 season. Special concerns in 2010 are whether a hurricane will hit the already-devastated island of Haiti and how a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico would affect the giant oil slick created by the explosion on the BP offshore driling platform. Another question is whether a hurricane will come ashore in the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coastal areas, some of which have not yet recovered from 2005's Hurricane Katrina.
Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions
An Above-Average Hurricane Season:
On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions. University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual. Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "[lead] to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify."
Eight Major Hurricanes Expected
Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season. Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm. Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.
15 Named Storms in Total
Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.13 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct.
Hurricane + Oil Slick: What Would Happen?
The leak from the site of the demolished Deepwater Horizon drilling platform has raised numerous environmental concerns throughout the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast regions. With hurricane season looming, however, speculation is growing regarding the impact that a Gulf hurricane may have on the huge oil slick. Even the experts don't really know what would happen because there is no precedent.
A hurricane could move the slick toward the coast and a storm surge or hurricane force winds could carry the oil inland, producing an even greater disaster than either a hurricane or oil slick alone. A hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf would also impede the efforts to contain the leak and the slick. Some have even speculated that the oil slick may inhibit the formation of hurricanes in the Gulf by forming a barrier between the air and the water. Once a hurricane has formed, however, the slick would not affect its intensity or track. Another positive effect of a hurricane may be that the churning waves would hasten degradation of the oil by disbursing it.
Unfortunately, the chances that a hurricane will hit the oil spill are fairly good. Hurricanes in the early part of hurricane season historically develop in the Gulf region, whereas later hurricanes form in the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, hurricane forecasters from the Colorado State University predict that the chances that a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico this year are 44%, higher than the historic average of 30%.
From Joe Bastardi at Accuweather:2010 Hurricane Season
Bastardi is calling for the 2010 hurricane season to be a top-10 active year, sharply contrasting last year's calm season.
"Hurricane season will start early and stay late this year," said Bastardi. "My biggest fear is that it goes beyond the nasty season I have forecasted since February. 2010 may be remembered as the hurricane season from Hades."
He predicts a total of 16-18 storms and an early start with one or two threats by early July. Fifteen storms could strike amid the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.He is forecasting seven storms to impact the United States, five of those being hurricanes. Two or three of those hurricanes will be major landfalls for the United States.
He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "bunching" of tracks in the area around the southwest Atlantic.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 20.
Looks like a warm summer ahead
Finally, this headline from Fox News sums things up -
Hurricane Season Could Be Strongest Ever, Say Top Meteorologists
Hurricane Season Could Be Strongest Ever, Say Top Meteorologists
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues its 2010 hurricane season forecast, predicting one of the strongest seasons on record -- and reiterating fears that the Gulf oil spill may be impacted by the severe weather.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues its 2010 hurricane season forecast, predicting one of the strongest seasons on record -- and reiterating fears that the Gulf oil spill may be impacted by the severe weather.
Hurricane season for the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. That's when about 90 percent of the storms make themselves present, and the predictions for this season are grim -- which could wreak further havoc on the Gulf Coast.
NOAA's forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
This jibes with earlier predictions of a severe hurricane season from Accuweather and scientists at Colorado State.
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," Accuweather's Joe Bastardi told FoxNews.com in May. And Colorado State University meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray also predict rough weather in their extended-range hurricane forecast.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The intense forecast is based on the weakening of El Nino, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that creates strong wind shear that weakens Atlantic storms.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop."
Predictions of an active hurricane season bring the risk that oil from the DeepWater oil spill may be affected by the dramatic seasonal storms. Early predictions suggested that oil may be pushed into the Loop Current that circles Florida and be carried around the state and up the Atlantic coast.
In May, Accuweather's Bastardi expressed his concerns about this eventuality. "This oil slick is probably going to be impacted in some way by this hurricane season," the chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster said.
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," he said.
The agency agrees, but believes that the Loop Current won't be a factor. NOAA believes oil in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to stay there for now, since the Loop Current has pinched a path from Florida. The agency worries instead that the intense storm season may push oil onto shores, furthering the environmental catastrophe that may be facing Gulf states.
"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."
Our last New England Hurricane was "BOB" in 1991.
See what Bob did and get prepared...
A humorous view of Hurricane Predictions - Watch the video
Proud member of the National Weather Service "SkyWarn" program
