Daily Weather History & Video

First Look - Fall - 2026

Fall outlook: Strengthening El Niño is taking charge of temperature and precipitation patterns

The latest outlook for September through November is generally warm, but there are a few tastes of cooler weather.
It might seem strange to talk about fall colors when many of our air conditioners are still on full blast, but here's something kind of interesting to watch: the weather that's happening right now will play a large role in determining how stunningly (or not so stunningly) those green leaves currently flailing about outside your window will turn over the coming months.
Of course, the biggest factor is not weather-related. Shorter days are the primary trigger that tells trees to stop producing chlorophyll, and that change runs the same every year, regardless of the weather. But the weather between now and then controls everything else: How bright the colors get, how long they last — and whether they show up at all.
Here are the three factors that do most of that work, and how you can track them now:
Rainfall. Late-summer drought is the single biggest threat to a good leaf-peeping season. Stressed trees cut their losses and drop leaves early and brown, skipping color altogether. So watch your rainfall totals over the next several weeks — a prolonged dry stretch through September is the clearest signal of a weak year ahead.
If you have young or recently planted trees in the yard, deep watering during dry periods now is the one thing you can do about it.

Overnight lows. Cool nights, in the 40s but above freezing, are what trap sugars in the leaves and turn them vivid red. Warm nights let those sugars drain away, leaving duller yellows and browns. Start paying attention to how far the temperature drops after sunset in September; that spread between the high and the low is a better predictor of vivid color than the daytime heat.

Sunshine. Bright, clear September afternoons let leaves bank the sugars that cool nights lock in. Long stretches of gray, rainy weather, on the other hand, mute the whole display, and a heavy wind or rain event at the wrong moment can strip leaves off the branches in a day.

Because there are so many variables still in play, it's wise to stay flexible if you're planning a fall leaf-peeping trip, as peak timing can shift by a week or more depending on the weather ahead. In the meantime, our new Leaf Peak tool can help you start narrowing things down. Plug in where you're starting from and how far you'll travel, and it'll show how often forests in that area have actually turned color on a given weekend, based on up to 21 autumns of real photos. It's not a forecast (nobody can promise a peak date this far out) but it's a great way to weigh your options now.

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Who’s ready for pumpkin carving and dramatically throwing piles of multi-colored leaves into the air in slow motion? I know I am! But what about the weather? Will it be fall-ish and festive or summer 2.0?

Here is what you need to know according to the latest outlook from Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company, covering the upcoming meteorological fall (September through November).

Key Takeaways

 - El Niño is making itself known with warmer-than-average temperatures in the Northern Tier and wetter-than-average conditions in the Southern Plains.
 - The Southern Plains will see a major temperature switch-up from above-average to below-average from September to October and November.
 - September’s temperature outlook has been warmed up for the Southern Plains from previous outlooks.

Monthly Details

The series of maps above shows the temperature outlooks each month from September through November.

You can see the development of an El-Niño-esque pattern with warmer-than-average conditions spreading across the Northern Tier and cooler air (relative to what’s normal for the region) further south, especially later in the year.

The biggest whiplash will be in the Southern Plains and Northeast, though they’re going in opposite directions. The Northeast gets a cool taste of fall before things head back above average, and the Southern Plains start hot and then get much more into sweater weather territory.