New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Time of the readings below: 19 Apr 2024 3:29 PM
Current Temperature: 59.5°F (1.5) 
High Temperature for the day: 60.6 at 3:01 PM.
Low Temperature for today: 40.0 at 6:11 AM.
Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches
Current Dewpoint: 39.3°F (0.3)
Hours of Daylight Tomorrow: 13:38
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last complete site update: 4/19 - 7:16 AM

Skies were overcast here in Peterborough, NH this morning. The rainfall forecast for tonight into Saturday has increased since the every Thursday Weekend Outlook e-mail was sent last night. Still, that rainfall is expected to end Saturday morning, but unstable atmosphere may create passing afternoon showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm of graupel?
Deeper moisture for more widespread showers won`t arrive until the evening, but could see a couple isolated showers ahead of this make their way over terrain into western NH late this afternoon.

Earlier discussion... Just a few remaining early morning sprinkles as upper level low pulls east through the morning. Mid level moisture hangs around to make for a mostly cloudy start of the day. Can see some breaks working in late, but will see gradual increase again this evening ahead of incoming cold front.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, but much warmer compared to Thursday across SW NH where the difference may be just shy of 20 degrees warmer. Cooler spots today will be in the higher terrain, as well as the coast. In SE Maine cooler onshore return flow from exiting high will keep highs topping in the upper 40s to around 50.

There has been a general increase in precipitation/rain coverage for late tonight into early Saturday morning, particularly along the coast. As the cold front advances, will see showers increase mid evening and spread across the forecast area. But, many short term and now global models depict precipitation shield blossoming over central New England later as front approaches the interior and coast. There has been an ever so slight slowing trend in ensembles bringing around a quarter inch precipitation to the area before noon. This trend hugs the coast, but can`t rule out some marginal rainfall rates at some point into the Saturday morning timeframe for southern NH through the Midcoast of Maine.

Saturday isn`t done yet...Oh the heels of the front departure, expect some rather quick thinning of clouds and warming/drying at the surface as a result. Temps across the coast and interior to SW NH could warm readily towards 60 by early afternoon. Deep mixing with cold temps aloft should also allow for surface wind gusts to pick up where lapse rates steepen, possibly 30 to 40 mph.

To add to this, moisture aloft remains. So, the potential for shallow convection is there for much of the area Saturday afternoon. Deeper showers that can overcome the dry air could produce graupel given the lower freezing levels behind the cold front and instability. Confidence is still low on coverage of showers and potential precipitation Saturday afternoon given the inverted sounding below this moist layer.

Long range::
Overview: The pattern shows a broad trough over the region through the weekend into early next week, however dry air looks to dominate overhead at the same time so not much in the way of precipitation is expected. A more amplified trough looks to coincide with a cold front midweek, which could be our next chance of widespread rain.

Sunday will be very similar to Saturday temperature wise, as we start cold and clear, then continued broad troughing overhead and southwesterly upper level flow will allow for some diurnal cloud cover that will cap highs in the upper 50s and 40s from south to north respectively. Upper flow then shifts westerly and dries out the column Sunday night making for another good looking radiational cooling night that will drop temperatures back into the 30s. We will begin a warming trend on Monday as upper flow becomes more zonal and skies stay mostly clear. A cold front may dip across the international border briefly, but with such a dry air mass aloft it wouldn`t amount to more than a few extra clouds across the north. Highs will be back in the upper 50s and low 60s across the south, but more 40s up north. Clear skies will continue the trend of lows in the 30s south of the mountains and upper 20s for northern zones that won`t be getting as warm during the day.

Surface low pressure looks to ride the aforementioned frontal boundary into the region toward midweek. This would mean increasing clouds on Tuesday, but with southwesterly flow aloft the warming trend would continue and result in many areas south of the mountains seeing 60s and even upper 50s to the north. Seabreezes will continue to keep coastal areas in the 50s as well. A deeper upper trough and cold front looks to cross Wedensday bringing our next chance for widespread rain. Euro and GFS model ensembles have only 0.25 to 0.5" at the moment so nothing drenching, but will continue to keep an eye on trends as this is occuring at the tail end of the extended forecast period and uncertainty in the pattern setup is at its usual high.

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