New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Time of the readings below: 30 Nov 2023 6:52 AM
Current Temperature: 27.8°F (0.1) 
High Temperature for the day: 27.9 at 6:39 AM.
Low Temperature for today: 23.0 at 1:11 AM.
Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches
Current Dewpoint: 16.9°F (0.5)
Hours of Daylight Tomorrow: 9:16
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last complete site update: 11/29 - 5:16 PM

I observed snow falling today in Keene, Marlborough, and Dublin here in NH, but the flakes did not make it as far east as Peterborough.
We are looking at a very active period of weather starting this weekend. See the long range discussion below.
There`s just enough of an upslope component in the low-level flow for a few snow showers to continue in the Whites, but I don`t think these will last more than a couple more hours as the flow will back to more west to southwesterly. Otherwise, high pressure shifts east tonight as a weak disturbance passes mostly to the north of the area. This will bring an increase in clouds across the area, especially across the north, where a couple of snow showers may also occur near the International Border. Winds become light and southwesterly allowing Warm Air Advection to kick in, and combining with the cloud cover, temperatures probably won`t fall too much overnight, perhaps even come up a couple of degrees.

Dry air aloft and a subsidence inversion will keep precipitation out of the forecast with mostly to party sunny skies during the day on Thursday. The Warm Air Advection will also give us a warmer day with high temperatures expected to be generally in the lower 40s south of the mountains (based on mixing) while remaining in the 30s farther north.

Quiet conditions continue into Thursday night, and even though skies are forecast to be mostly clear south of the mountains, I think the winds may stay up enough to prevent strong radiational cooling for most areas, except the more sheltered areas. Forecast lows are still mostly in the 20s, although southern and coastal areas may stay in the low 30s. For the mountains, more clouds are expected as a weak frontal boundary approaches, which may also trigger some light snow across the far north.

Long range:
Overview: Weak low pressure passing to our south on Friday will be the start of a very active extended period. A cold front looks to stall over the region through the weekend, and with multiple shortwaves also swinging through, chances of precipitation will exist through the majority of this period. The strongest wave looks to arrive in the Monday-Tuesday time frame but uncertainty among the models is still very high.

Details: Continued southwesterly flow will drive temperatures to near 50 degrees along the coast and southern interior, and low to mid-40s elsewhere. Clouds increase through the day as weak low pressure approaches the area. Guidance has trended toward a more northward track that drives more moisture up into our area. This event still looks to be mainly a rain or snow event as ensembles show temperatures solidly above (southern zones) or below (far northern zones and higher elevations) freezing during the duration of the event. While PoPs have increased for the area, ensemble suites are still in good agreement that precipitation will be around 0.25". Light rain and even lighter snow will be pretty much over with by daybreak on Saturday, but high pressure will not be building as expected and will be staved off by a cold front that looks to stall over the area. A weak wave may ride this boundary and spread scattered showers across the area.

Weak waves will continue to ride this stalled boundary through Sunday, but this is where models begin to differ on the arrival of a stronger wave development of a potential coastal low pressure. The Euro and Canadian models are favoring this system to get organized Sunday night and move through Monday, while the GFS organizes it and pushes it through almost exactly 24 hours later. Based on how things have changed just recently at the beginning of the period. It seems to still be much too early to try to nail down a time frame. While this looks like a better chance to get some snow flakes down to the coast, ensembles are not in good agreement that we can hold on to the cold air and it shows in the deterministic runs that have begun to show the rain south of the mountains, snow north, pattern we have been seeing.

The Euro and Canadian models show an end to the parade of disturbances in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe and high pressure blossoming across the eastern half of the United States. While the 7AM run of the GFS shows a very deep trough and continued chances of precipitation. With all the model flip flopping that has been going on, I stayed close to the National Blend of Models guidance and will hope that models can start to agree on some of these features as time goes on.

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