Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

637 AM EST Friday, November 6, 2026

What Has Changed

The Flood Watch continues through today and tonight across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Forecast guidance has shifted the expected axis of heaviest rainfall slightly farther north. Otherwise, the overall forecast remains largely unchanged.

Key Messages

\- Widespread rain arrives today and continues tonight before tapering off early Saturday. Rain will be heavy at times across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the Islands.

\- Unsettled weather continues into this weekend, then cooler and drier conditions arrive next week.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Widespread Rain Today and Tonight

Forecasters are still working to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur. Some of the latest forecast guidance has shifted the area of heaviest rain slightly farther north because a cold front is expected to move through a little slower than previously anticipated. However, confidence remains highest for the heaviest rainfall across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

Temperatures have remained well above normal for early November. In fact, temperatures this morning are expected to remain warmer than what would normally be considered a typical daytime high for this time of year. Some record temperatures are also possible.

There continues to be a strong signal for significant rainfall across the region through Saturday. A few lightning strikes were detected around midnight south of Long Island, with additional flashes reported south of Cape Ann more recently. While thunderstorms have not been widespread so far, a few remain possible as the storm system moves through.

Rainfall projections have not changed substantially. Most areas across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts can expect 1 to 3 inches of rain, with lower probabilities for isolated totals of 4 to 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts could cause localized flooding in urban areas and locations with poor drainage. Communities such as New Bedford, Fall River, Providence, and Cranston are among the areas that could experience problems. Fallen leaves clogging storm drains this time of year could make the situation worse.

For smaller rivers and streams across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, rainfall amounts of 4 inches or more would generally be needed before minor flooding becomes a concern. At this time, the greater concern is street flooding and water collecting in areas with poor drainage rather than widespread river flooding.

Farther north and west, including Connecticut and northern Massachusetts, rainfall amounts are expected to be lower, keeping the primary flooding threat focused on Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Given the potential for flooding and some uncertainty about exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, the Flood Watch remains in effect.

Rainfall should initially decrease Saturday morning, providing a temporary break in the wet weather. However, another round of showers is expected to develop Saturday afternoon and continue into Saturday night as a colder portion of an upper-level low-pressure system moves overhead.

This colder air higher in the atmosphere, combined with some breaks in the clouds near the surface, will create an unstable atmosphere that supports the development of widespread showers. A few of these showers could produce locally heavy rainfall and small hail as colder air moves into the middle levels of the atmosphere.

Key Message 2: Unsettled Weekend Followed by Cooler and Drier Weather

Following Friday and Saturday rain, another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf of Maine Saturday night into Sunday morning. This system will gradually move northeastward while an upper-level trough, an elongated area of lower atmospheric pressure and colder air, follows from the west.

The colder air associated with this system will move across southern New England, bringing a noticeable change in temperatures. At approximately 18,000 feet above the surface, temperatures are forecast to fall to around -4 degrees Fahrenheit, with some computer guidance suggesting temperatures as cold as -13 degrees. Closer to the ground, temperatures will also drop considerably.

These colder conditions will help bring daytime highs back into the 50s Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Overnight lows will generally fall into the 30s and 40s.

Long-range forecast guidance suggests temperatures and moisture levels should remain relatively close to normal for the upcoming week. However, stronger-than-normal west winds are expected Monday through Wednesday, potentially making conditions feel cooler, especially during the daytime.

Winds will generally remain out of the west through much of next week as several weak cold fronts move through the region. These fronts are not expected to produce much precipitation because the atmosphere will be relatively dry. Moisture levels will decrease, with atmospheric water vapor levels dropping to around one-half inch or less and dew points returning to the 30s and 40s.

Some passing clouds are possible as these weather systems move through, but the overall pattern favors cooler, breezy, and predominantly dry conditions across southern New England for much of next week.