Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME, 624 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026**

**What has Changed**

Only minor adjustments were made to reflect the latest observations. The aviation section was also updated for the 12Z TAFs. TAF stands for Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, which are detailed weather forecasts specifically prepared for airports and aviation operations.

**Key Messages**

1. Dangerous marine conditions continue with large breaking waves and a high risk for rip currents. Splash-over and minor coastal flooding are possible for several more high tide cycles through Sunday night, and possibly Monday afternoon.

2. This nor’easter will also bring widespread beneficial rain south of the mountains, along with gusty northeast winds through at least Monday along the coast and across southern New Hampshire.

3. After the nor’easter moves away Tuesday, conditions turn warmer and drier for the second half of next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Coastal and Marine Conditions**

A nor’easter centered south of Long Island will drift northwestward and then westward toward Long Island and New Jersey today. After reaching peak intensity, the low will gradually weaken as it slowly moves across southern New England through Tuesday.

Storm surge, which is the rise in water level caused by the storm, is expected to remain around 1.0 to 1.5 feet. Although total water levels are expected to remain just below minor flood stage, the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect because of large waves.

Large waves near the shoreline will produce considerable splash-over, potentially carrying debris onto vulnerable coastal roads through at least tonight’s high tide cycle. Dune erosion is also expected, and the most vulnerable locations could experience some coastal inundation.

Hazardous conditions at beaches and over the waters will continue through at least Sunday night. Nearshore waves of 10 to 15 feet will gradually decrease from late today through Monday.

The High Surf Advisory remains unchanged because of the combination of large waves and strong rip currents. The long duration of the storm’s fetch, meaning the long distance over which winds blow across the water, will also create opportunities for sneaker waves. These are unexpectedly large waves within a normal set that can travel much farther onto shore.

Extra caution is strongly encouraged for anyone visiting the beach. Stay away from rock outcrops and jetties, and do not approach the surf to observe the waves.

**Key Message 2, Rain and Wind**

The nor’easter will continue drifting north for a little while longer before stalling offshore near New Jersey early today. The storm is expanding somewhat, allowing the region to finally receive much-needed rainfall.

Bands of showers and periods of steady rain, occasionally heavy, will continue moving onshore today. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. The most beneficial rainfall is expected across southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.

Farther inland, dry high pressure to the north will occasionally push southward, limiting rainfall amounts, especially this afternoon and evening.

Winds over land remain below advisory levels. Some wind gusts along the coast and across southeastern New Hampshire could reach 40 to 45 MPH today. However, the low-level jet, a band of stronger winds several thousand feet above the ground, will begin weakening later this afternoon. As a result, peak surface winds should decrease this evening and continue easing into Monday.

Areas south of the mountains and along the coast should receive a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain. Latest high-resolution forecast guidance suggests locally higher amounts across far southeastern New Hampshire and far southwestern Maine, where localized totals up to 4 inches will be possible through Monday.

Computer forecast models indicate that the rain will likely arrive in waves, with some thunderstorms or convective elements possible. A stray lightning strike cannot be ruled out along the coast and over the waters.

Embedded downpours will also be possible, with precipitation water content, or P-WATs, expected to reach the 90th percentile or greater for this time of year. In plain English, some of the heavier rain bands could contain an unusually large amount of available moisture.

Most of the precipitation will begin tapering off later Monday. However, the upper-level low will move overhead Tuesday, which could produce some lingering areas of light rain.

**Key Message 3, Warmer and Drier Weather Ahead**

After the nor’easter moves offshore, the 500 mb pattern, which describes the large-scale atmospheric setup around 18,000 feet above the ground, is expected to favor the development of a ridge over the eastern United States.

With high pressure developing south of New England, temperatures should moderate during the middle and latter part of next week, with mainly dry conditions.

A small amount of instability could allow a stray shower to develop Wednesday or Thursday, but most locations should remain dry.

Rain chances increase somewhat Friday as a cold front moves southward across New England. However, rain chances are expected to remain in the slight-chance category because the front is weak and any available instability will have to overcome a layer of sinking air that tends to suppress shower and thunderstorm development.