Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**230 AM EDT Sunday July 5 2026**

**What Has Changed**

There is little change to the overall forecast. Monday is now expected to be somewhat drier than previously forecast.

**Key Messages**

1. Much more comfortable weather for today.

2. Precipitation chances are centered on Tuesday. The greatest chance for soaking rainfall will be across southern New Hampshire.

3. Warming by late week with hot and humid conditions returning.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

A cold front has moved through the region, bringing in a much drier air mass. Afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably warm, reaching the 80s, but dew points in the 50s will keep humidity low, making it feel much more comfortable than recent days. Along the coast, an afternoon sea breeze will provide additional cooling.

High pressure remains in control tonight, keeping most areas dry. There is only a very small chance of an isolated shower across southern New Hampshire late tonight as a weather system passes south of New England.

**Key Message 2 Description**

The cold front that moved through yesterday will stall over the Mid Atlantic before drifting slightly northward Monday into Tuesday. As this happens, a developing area of low pressure will move east along the front.

Most forecast guidance keeps this storm track well south of northern New England, although a few forecast scenarios bring it closer to southern New England. Because of this, northern New England is expected to remain on the cooler, more stable side of the storm, unlike earlier forecasts from last week.

Current guidance indicates about a 30 percent chance that precipitation will exceed one inch from Concord through Manchester to Portsmouth. Those probabilities decrease significantly across interior New Hampshire and much of Maine. Near the Massachusetts and New Hampshire border, there is about a 20 percent chance of more than two inches of precipitation.

A soaking rainfall remains possible, especially across southern New England, where forecast models continue to show the greatest potential. However, more stable air north of the front should limit heavier downpours, resulting in steadier, lighter rainfall instead of strong thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure to the north should also help keep much of the region dry through at least Monday.

Exactly how far north the rainfall reaches on Tuesday remains uncertain, as the northern edge of precipitation can be difficult to forecast. At a minimum, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are likely to receive little or no precipitation, while the highest totals remain near the Massachusetts border.

**Key Message 3 Description**

High pressure returns by the middle of the week, bringing a warming and drying trend. By late week, this high pressure system shifts offshore into the classic Bermuda High pattern, allowing warm southwest winds to develop across the region.

Temperatures about 5,000 feet above the ground are forecast to warm from around 54 degrees Tuesday to about 63 degrees by Thursday night. This warmer air aloft, combined with July sunshine and warm air moving into the region, will likely lead to very warm conditions by the end of the week.

Afternoon highs are expected to reach well into the 80s from Wednesday through Friday, with some locations potentially reaching the lower 90s if conditions come together favorably.

Late in the week, another upper level weather disturbance moving southeast out of Canada could bring the next chance for thunderstorms. Humidity levels are expected to increase significantly by Friday, with dew points approaching 70 degrees. However, current forecast guidance suggests the atmosphere may not become especially unstable. There is also no indication of an **Elevated Mixed Layer (EML)**, a layer of very warm, dry air several thousand feet above the ground that can sometimes contribute to more intense thunderstorms.