Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**643 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Updated the Aviation section for the 12 PM EDT TAF forecast package. No other forecast changes were made.

**Key Messages**

1. Much above normal temperatures return and conditions remain largely dry through Wednesday afternoon.

2. Summer warmth continues, with increasing humidity.

3. Daily chances for downpours and thunderstorms through Saturday ahead of a cold front.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

As high pressure shifts south of the region, winds around the system will begin transporting warmer air into Maine and New Hampshire. Through sunrise, clear skies and light winds will support strong overnight cooling near the ground.

Forecast temperatures early this morning are expected to run a few degrees cooler than some automated guidance suggests. By this afternoon, stronger mixing of the atmosphere will allow warmer air from several thousand feet above the surface to reach the ground. Temperatures in that layer are about 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than yesterday, supporting widespread afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s.

A layer of stable air aloft, known as a subsidence inversion, remains in place. This will limit the vertical growth of clouds, so while fair weather cumulus clouds may develop during the day, they are not expected to grow enough to produce showers.

On Wednesday, temperatures several thousand feet above the surface will continue warming. However, increasing humidity will reduce how deeply the atmosphere mixes during the afternoon. These competing factors should keep high temperatures similar to those of today.

Forecasters are also monitoring a feature known as an elevated mixed layer, a pocket of warmer and drier air located above the surface. Remnants of this feature may move toward the Northeast on Wednesday. The steep temperature changes with height associated with this feature are expected to remain mostly west of the area, but even a glancing influence into southwestern New Hampshire could provide enough atmospheric instability, known as CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, to support isolated thunderstorms.

**Key Message 2 Description**

A strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will remain over the region through Saturday before gradually moving offshore as a trough, or area of lower pressure aloft, approaches from the Great Lakes.

This pattern will support a very warm air mass across the Northeast. Forecast ensembles indicate temperatures around 5,000 feet above sea level will remain in the 61 to 63 degree range late this week. If daytime heating allows that warmth to mix down to the surface, widespread highs in the 80s are likely, with a few of the warmest valley locations potentially reaching 90 degrees, especially Thursday and Friday.

This will also be the first prolonged period of significant humidity this year as the Bermuda High becomes established for several days. Forecast guidance suggests dew points between 65 and 70 degrees Thursday and Friday. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the air, and values in this range typically feel noticeably humid. Combined with the warm temperatures, conditions will feel much more like midsummer.

**Key Message 3 Description**

Late this week, a developing trough over the Midwest will attempt to push a cold front through New England. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing, but forecast guidance is increasingly favoring Saturday for the frontal passage.

Once the front moves through, dew points are expected to fall sharply as winds turn northwesterly and bring in cooler, drier air from Canada. There is also some indication that a weaker secondary front could move through on Sunday.

Ahead of the cold front, there will be daily opportunities for showers, downpours, and thunderstorms. Storm coverage is expected to be scattered rather than widespread on most days. However, a more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms could develop directly along the cold front as it moves through.

Some forecast tools, including CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance, suggest a higher severe weather potential. However, weak wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height, should limit the development of organized severe thunderstorms. In addition, the cold front is expected to be somewhat disconnected from its parent low pressure system, meaning the larger-scale atmospheric support will not be especially strong. As a result, the overall severe weather threat currently appears limited.