Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
159 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**
No changes to the forecast for this update cycle.

**KEY MESSAGES**

Another warm and humid day today with a chance for isolated showers and storms.

Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday.

Heat and humidity return by midweek.

**DISCUSSION**

**KEY MESSAGE 1**
Another warm and humid day today with a chance for isolated showers and storms.

A weak cold front drops south from northern New England, crossing through northern Massachusetts this morning before slowing down south of the Massachusetts Turnpike by the afternoon. This front acts as a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike, even as the atmosphere dries out significantly behind the front.

General risks with any limited thunderstorm activity will be restricted to lightning and locally heavy rain, because lingering cloud cover limits CAPE, which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy and measures atmospheric instability, to less than 1000 Joules per kilogram. We could see locally higher shower and storm coverage on the east coast of Massachusetts due to a sea breeze acting as a mesoscale, or localized, lifting mechanism. Therefore, probability of precipitation is around 20 to 35 percent this afternoon in those areas.

The other story today will be hot and humid conditions as afternoon highs warm into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees for much of the forecast area. The highest heat index values, which reflect how hot it actually feels when combining heat and humidity, will be along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where dew point values will likely be near or above 70 degrees.

**KEY MESSAGE 2**
Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday.

Surface high pressure from Canada builds southward under cyclonic, or counter clockwise, atmospheric flow aloft. Northwest winds higher up in the atmosphere will cool temperatures at the 850 millibar pressure level, which is located around 5000 feet high, down to about 55 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit. This translates to afternoon surface highs in the mid 70s to low and mid 80s degrees Fahrenheit.

It should feel quite a bit more comfortable than what we have experienced over the last few weeks, bringing lower humidity levels and completely dry weather Saturday through Monday. Other than some cooler seabreezes near the eastern coast, it is shaping up to be a great weekend weatherwise.

**KEY MESSAGE 3**
Heat and humidity return by midweek.

A sprawling 594 dekameter atmospheric pressure ridge over the central United States builds eastward through midweek. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday, temperatures become quite hot as temperatures at the 5000 foot level soar again into the 64 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit range.

These values are somewhat cooler by comparison to our last extended spell of high heat and humidity, but still very intense. The potential exists for surface temperatures to climb well into the 90s degrees Fahrenheit. Combined with high humidity levels, this setup may necessitate a period of official heat headlines and advisories for midweek.

The risk for thunderstorms looks limited early on, with a better chance arriving on Wednesday. This happens as northwest winds aloft increase and a plume of elevated mid level lapse rates, which measures how fast temperature drops with height, builds in to favor stronger atmospheric instability.