Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 724 AM EDT
Thu Aug 13 2026**

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**

Monitoring early morning showers and embedded thunderstorms across southern New England, although storms are not expected to become severe.

**KEY MESSAGES**

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible today and Friday.

* Dry, seasonable, and comfortable weather returns for the weekend.

* Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, followed by quieter weather into the middle of next week.

**DISCUSSION**

**KEY MESSAGE 1, Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible today and Friday**

A cluster of showers with embedded thunderstorms is being monitored south of I-90 early this morning, mainly affecting Connecticut as of 1:30 AM EDT. The storms remain below severe levels, but they are producing lightning and localized wind gusts up to 40 mph. This area of showers and storms will move east toward Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts before sunrise, potentially producing a wet early morning commute.

Forecast models continue to suggest that another cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms could redevelop across eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts from 5:00 AM to 8:00 AM EDT. Otherwise, expect a cloudy start to the day.

Clouds should break apart this afternoon as daytime heating and mixing in the lower atmosphere allow temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 80s. Storm coverage this afternoon should remain limited.

The middle levels of the atmosphere are relatively dry, with northwest winds. Outside of a few hit-or-miss showers, the afternoon should be largely dry because the stronger lifting mechanism, or forcing, remains associated with a trough and disturbance across northern New England.

By late this evening, the first cold front moves offshore, followed by another push of drier air on Friday. Computer forecast models, known as CAMs or convection-allowing models, suggest a few pop-up thunderstorms could develop along the edge of this boundary. However, the dry air should keep coverage isolated, with only a few ordinary thunderstorms expected. Most of southern New England should remain dry, with lower humidity and highs in the lower 80s.

**KEY MESSAGE 2, Dry, seasonable, and comfortable weather returns for the weekend**

Quiet weather is expected this weekend as an area of high pressure from northern Canada settles across the Northeast Saturday and into the first half of Sunday.

Precipitable water, or PWAT, is expected to drop significantly, with values between 0.5 and 0.7 inches. This is nearly one standard deviation below normal and indicates a much drier air mass. Little to no humidity is expected Saturday, and conditions may actually feel quite dry, with almost fall-like humidity.

Temperatures remain near seasonable levels, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday night into Sunday morning, clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop efficiently. Lows should fall into the mid-50s, while urban areas remain closer to 60 degrees.

On Sunday, high pressure moves away as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. Warmer air and increasing moisture will move northward from the southwest as a warm front approaches, leading to increasing cloud cover during the afternoon. Temperatures should remain seasonable and similar to Saturday, while dew points increase to near 60 degrees.

**KEY MESSAGE 3, Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, followed by quieter weather into the middle of next week**

The next opportunity for rainfall arrives during the second half of Sunday and continues into Monday. There remains uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts because the exact track of the surface low will determine where the heaviest rain develops.

This system is worth watching because forecast guidance agrees that precipitable water values could exceed 2 inches, indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. This is also supported by a Marginal Risk, level 1 of 4, for excessive rainfall.

Forecast ensembles suggest areas north of I-90 have the greatest chance of measurable rainfall, with a 40 to 60 percent probability of receiving at least 0.5 inches of rain from Sunday evening through Monday evening. If thunderstorms develop within the rain area, localized rainfall totals could be higher.

The good news is that the system appears likely to move through fairly quickly, with the cold front clearing New England on Monday. Drier air will then move in from the northwest, producing another stretch of generally dry weather from late Monday through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures should remain seasonable, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and manageable humidity as dew points remain in the lower 60s.