Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
National Weather Service Gray ME
Issued 327 AM EDT Friday, May 29, 2026

**What Has Changed**

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the New Hampshire seacoast and southern Maine coast late tonight through Saturday morning.

Snow levels have trended lower tonight into Saturday morning, with winter conditions likely above 2500 feet.

**Key Messages**

1. Cold rainfall and high elevation snow are expected late today into Saturday morning. Hikers should prepare for winter conditions above 2500 feet.

2. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected along the New Hampshire seacoast and southern Maine coast late tonight into Saturday morning. Gusty winds up to 40 mph are also forecast during this time across interior southern New Hampshire through the Maine Lakes Region.

3. An extended period of cool and unsettled conditions looks increasingly likely for much of next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

An upper level low, which is a pocket of cold air and lower pressure several miles above the ground, will drop south from Quebec tonight over New England. At the same time, a surface low will move through the Gulf of Maine on Saturday. Scattered showers this afternoon will become a steadier stratiform rain tonight, meaning a broader and more widespread shield of rain, spreading from northwest to southeast.

Rain will then end from north to south on Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon as northeast winds remain gusty, especially along the coast. An unusually cold pool of air aloft will allow rain to change to wet snow for elevations generally around 2500 feet and above. This could create dangerous conditions for hikers.

Any early day sun will fade by early this afternoon as the upper level low approaches from the north. High temperatures will range from the 50s across northern areas to the 60s farther south. A few afternoon showers are possible, mainly across the north and mountains.

Steady rainfall arrives toward nightfall. Temperatures near the 850 mb level, roughly 5000 feet above sea level, will be around 23 degrees Fahrenheit. That will support snow across the higher elevations, generally from around 2500 feet and above. Several inches of snow accumulation are likely, with around a foot possible across the highest elevations in the White Mountains. This snow, combined with wind chill values in the single digits, will create potentially dangerous conditions for hikers.

For rainfall, generally 1 to 1.5 inches are expected across far western Maine and eastern New Hampshire, with one half inch or less elsewhere. Rain and mountain snow will end from north to south Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s, but the wind will make it feel colder. Frost is possible Saturday night as skies clear and winds relax.

**Key Message 2 Description**

The rapidly deepening low pressure system will also develop a strong low level jet along the Gulf of Maine coast as it moves toward Cape Cod. A low level jet is a ribbon of stronger winds a few thousand feet above the ground. As it moves south, the strengthening northeast low level jet will line up nearly parallel to the Maine coast.

The unusually cool air mass should allow for unstable lapse rates in the low levels. Lapse rates describe how quickly temperatures drop with height. In this case, the setup may allow stronger winds from around the 900 mb level, a few thousand feet above the ground, to mix down to the surface. Winds at that level are expected to reach 40 to 50 knots during the early Saturday morning hours.

This would result in a period of wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph across much of the southern forecast area. Confidence is greatest for gusts near 50 mph along the Cumberland and York County coasts in Maine, as well as the New Hampshire seacoast. A few gusts near 50 mph may also occur into the New Hampshire and Maine Lakes Region.

The cold air mass is helping create the low level instability needed to bring stronger winds down to the surface. However, the timing is still a concern because the strongest jet may be pulling away from some areas as it strengthens.

Confidence in this wind event is also supported by an impressive EFI signal greater than 0.95 and a shift of tails value of 1 to 2 over the affected region. EFI, or Extreme Forecast Index, is an ensemble forecast tool that helps show how unusual a weather event may be compared to normal. A strong signal here means the forecast models are in reasonable agreement that this will be an unusual wind event for late May. Trends will continue to be monitored for any need to expand wind headlines farther inland.

**Key Message 3 Description**

The next shortwave is expected to arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A shortwave is a smaller disturbance in the upper level flow that can help trigger clouds and showers. This system will take a similar track to Saturdays event, but it should be a weaker version.

Temperatures near the 850 mb level will still be unusually cold for this time of year, around 41 degrees Fahrenheit or lower. After a dry start to Sunday, showers are expected to develop during the afternoon. These will be fueled by cold air aloft and a lobe of vorticity moving in from Quebec. Vorticity refers to spin in the atmosphere, which can help air rise and produce showers.

Into next week, an omega block pattern will keep a firm grip over the continental United States. An omega block is a large and slow moving pattern in the jet stream that can keep the same weather setup in place for several days. In this case, ridging over the Canadian Prairies and troughing over the Northeast United States will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

For our sensible weather, meaning the weather we actually feel at ground level, below normal 500 mb heights will remain in place. The 500 mb level is roughly halfway up through the atmosphere and is commonly used to track larger weather patterns. Temperatures at both 850 mb and 500 mb will also stay below average, though not as extreme as this weekend.

With a persistent cold pool aloft and the stronger June sun, it will not take much surface heating for diurnally driven showers to develop each day. Diurnally driven means the showers are triggered by daytime heating, usually during the afternoon and early evening. These showers will be scattered, so while most of next week has daily precipitation chances, it will not rain the entire time in any one location. The best chances for clearing skies will be at night and during the early morning hours.

This pattern generally supports below normal temperatures. Still, with the calendar turning to June, temperatures should remain tolerable for outdoor activities when showers are not occurring.