Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

241 PM EST Tuesday November 10, 2026

What Has Changed

No significant changes to the forecast.

Key Messages

- Dry and seasonable weather continues for tonight and Wednesday.
- A chilly rain is likely late Thursday into Saturday, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Dry and seasonable weather continues for tonight and Wednesday

Dry weather will continue through Wednesday as southern New England remains under the influence of a broad area of high pressure aloft. Winds from the west and northwest will continue, bringing generally quiet weather.

A weak disturbance moving southward overnight will bring a period of breezy conditions, particularly along the coast and across higher elevations inland. This system will also introduce slightly cooler air aloft by Wednesday, although temperatures at the surface will change very little.

High temperatures Wednesday should reach the low to middle 50s across much of the region, with some locations in the Connecticut River Valley reaching the upper 50s. A combination of sunshine and passing clouds is expected.

Key Message 2: A chilly rain likely late Thursday into Saturday, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of Massachusetts and Connecticut

Weather models are showing good agreement that one or more coastal low-pressure systems will track near or south of New England between Thursday and Saturday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty about whether this will involve several smaller storms or one consolidated system. The strength and exact track of these systems are also uncertain.

These differences make it difficult to determine exactly where the heaviest precipitation will occur and how much rainfall the region will receive. There is also uncertainty about whether a temporary area of drier air could develop within the storm system.

Given the lack of sufficiently cold air near the ground, most of the region will likely experience a chilly rain. This is especially true across the coastal plain and larger population centers, including Boston, Worcester, Providence, and Hartford.

For snow to develop in the lower elevations, a stronger storm would likely be necessary. That would allow colder air to move down through the atmosphere and overcome the relatively mild temperatures near the ground. Heavy precipitation could also help cool the atmosphere enough to support snow, but forecast models currently disagree considerably on where the heaviest precipitation will fall.

As a result, confidence remains low regarding the exact details of this storm system. Most of the latest forecast guidance suggests Thursday could begin dry, but rain should spread across much of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island by Thursday evening.

Snow Potential

The latest forecast model ensembles, which combine multiple computer forecasts to estimate the range of possible outcomes, show only a small number of solutions producing substantial snowfall across Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Snow is possible, but the overall probability remains very low for most locations.

The possibility of accumulating snow would depend on a stronger storm producing more significant cooling throughout the atmosphere, along with heavier precipitation.

For the higher elevations, however, there is a somewhat better chance of accumulating snow. The latest ensemble guidance suggests the following probabilities for at least 3 inches of snow:

- Northern Worcester County and the Berkshires: The GEFS ensemble forecasts a 10 to 20 percent probability.
- The Canadian ensemble forecasts show a similar outlook.
- The European ensemble forecasts indicate a higher probability, reaching 50 to 60 percent across the Berkshires and 30 to 40 percent across northern Worcester County.

These numbers highlight the uncertainty surrounding snowfall amounts and where accumulating snow may develop. For now, a chilly rain remains the most likely outcome for most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Looking Ahead to Sunday and Early Next Week

The coastal storm system is expected to gradually move away by Sunday. This should allow improving weather conditions as high pressure begins building back into southern New England.

Sunday should bring drier conditions, although it will remain breezy. Temperatures should also be somewhat milder than Saturday.

Further improvement is expected early next week as high pressure strengthens. Seasonable temperatures should return, with afternoon highs generally reaching the low 50s and dry weather continuing.