Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME
132 AM EST Thursday, November 5, 2026

What Has Changed

Fog has been added to the forecast through this morning to reflect current observations. Precipitation estimates for Friday through Saturday have decreased slightly. However, a soaking rainfall remains possible along the coast, with beneficial rainfall also possible farther inland.

Key Messages

1\. A wetter weather pattern begins today as scattered showers move into the region ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Soaking rain is likely along the coast Friday and Saturday as the front stalls offshore, with beneficial rainfall also possible inland.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Increasing Rain Chances Today Through Saturday

An initial band of showers will move across the region today as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers are expected to reach New Hampshire between 8 and 9 AM and arrive near the Maine border before noon. Most of this activity should move out before sunset, and rainfall amounts are expected to be relatively light.

Across New Hampshire, rainfall totals are expected to range from around 0.10 to 0.25 inches, although communities along the Seacoast may receive only a few hundredths of an inch.

The frontal boundary is expected to slow down and stall Thursday night, allowing additional showers to develop along it. Forecast models are increasingly agreeing that the front will stall along the coast or just offshore. This could create a concentrated area of heavier rainfall as the system draws in tropical moisture.

Forecast models are indicating precipitable water values, or PWATs, between 1.25 and 1.40 inches. This measures how much moisture is available in the atmosphere if all the water vapor were condensed into rainfall. These values are well above normal for early November and support the potential for periods of heavier rain.

However, drier air moving in behind the stalled front could create a fairly sharp dividing line between areas receiving substantial rainfall and locations seeing much less. As an area of low pressure develops and travels along the frontal boundary Friday, the heaviest and steadiest rain could remain concentrated along the coast, with considerably less rainfall north of the foothills.

There is still some hope for areas farther inland. Forecast models are suggesting that a smaller coastal low-pressure system could develop Saturday, helping push additional rainfall farther inland. However, rainfall amounts in these areas would likely be considerably lower than along the coast on Friday.




Rainfall Probabilities

As forecast models have shifted the heaviest rainfall axis farther offshore, probabilities for receiving more than 1 inch of rain between Friday and Saturday have decreased considerably since yesterday evening.

Current probabilities for more than 1 inch of rain are approximately 40 to 50 percent along the coast, with somewhat higher chances across the Midcoast region.

Looking at a lower threshold of one-half inch, probabilities increase to approximately 50 to 60 percent from the foothills southward to the coast, with coastal communities approaching 70 percent. Northern New Hampshire and the Western Maine Mountains have lower probabilities, generally around 30 to 40 percent.

Unfortunately, the latest trends suggest that some locations could once again miss out on the heavier rainfall. Still, even a modest amount of rain would be beneficial, as many communities have gone more than two weeks without measurable precipitation.

Looking Ahead

An upper-level trough, an elongated area of lower atmospheric pressure, will remain in place through the middle of next week. This pattern should favor occasional upslope rain and snow showers in the mountains, where moist air is forced upward along the terrain.

Locations south of the mountains are expected to return to mostly dry weather after the weekend.