Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 235 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026**

**What Has Changed**

A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Cape Cod from 8 PM this evening through 7 AM EDT Monday.

**Key Messages**

* Fair weather for most areas except the Cape and Islands Sunday and Monday. A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Cape Cod tonight through early Monday.

* Temperatures on the lower end of seasonable as periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday through Wednesday, possibly into Thursday. Monitoring for increasing chances of localized heavy precipitation and potentially flash flooding.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Fair weather for most areas except the Cape and Islands Sunday and Monday. A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Cape Cod tonight into Sunday.**

Another mostly clear day is expected Sunday as weak high pressure remains in control of the weather. An approaching upper level trough, an elongated area of lower pressure in the atmosphere that helps promote cloud development, along with a low pressure system passing well offshore, will bring more moisture and clouds to Cape Cod and the Islands during the afternoon.

Forecast models indicate a shallow layer of moisture near the ground with much drier air above it. Because this moist layer is expected to remain fairly thin, most locations should stay dry. The worst case would be a little patchy drizzle across the outer Cape and Islands. Aside from increased clouds in those areas, most of southern New England will remain dry with a northeasterly breeze along the eastern coastline.

High temperatures will generally range from the lower to middle 80s across inland areas and the middle to upper 70s along the eastern coast.

A Rip Current Statement remains in effect for Cape Cod as persistent easterly winds and long period ocean swells create a moderate to high risk for dangerous rip currents. While the highest threat is along Cape Cod, an elevated risk also extends along much of the south and east facing coastline, especially beaches facing east along Cape Cod, the Islands, and portions of the Massachusetts east coast.

Conditions become slightly warmer across inland areas on Monday as temperatures about 2,500 feet above the ground warm enough to support afternoon highs in the middle and upper 80s. A stronger upper level disturbance, known as a shortwave trough, will move overhead and bring increasing cloud cover during the afternoon. Forecast guidance indicates a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers across western portions of the forecast area as the atmosphere becomes more favorable for rising air and thunderstorm development.

**Key Message 2, Temperatures on the lower end of seasonable as periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday through Wednesday, possibly into Thursday. Monitoring for increasing chances of localized heavy precipitation and potentially flash flooding.**

Forecast ensembles, which are groups of many computer model simulations used to estimate uncertainty, are coming into better agreement that a low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday before reaching New England around Wednesday.

Several smaller disturbances embedded within the larger weather system, along with an upper level trough, are expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and possibly thunderstorms from Monday through Wednesday, with some activity possibly lingering into Thursday.

Forecast guidance continues to show atmospheric moisture increasing to between 120 and 170 percent of normal by Tuesday. Some forecast models indicate even higher values. There are also indications that the low pressure system could slow down as it approaches New England, while winds higher in the atmosphere become lighter. This combination could allow thunderstorms to repeatedly move over the same locations, a process known as training storms.

If that occurs, the combination of abundant moisture, repeated thunderstorms, and the lifting provided by the approaching low pressure system could produce localized heavy precipitation and increase the risk for flash flooding.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the exact track of the low pressure system. Some forecast models bring it closer to New York City, while others track it through northern Massachusetts. That difference will determine where the heaviest precipitation ultimately falls. It remains possible that the greatest flooding threat stays west or south of the region or becomes focused mainly across western portions of southern New England.

Otherwise, afternoon temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side of normal through the middle of next week. Temperatures in the middle levels of the atmosphere will remain relatively cool, helping keep daytime highs near or slightly below average for late July.