Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA**
**228 AM EDT Wednesday, July 15, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Forecasters continue to monitor the potential for strong thunderstorms to move into northern Massachusetts during the early morning hours.

**Key Messages**

Strong thunderstorms are possible early this morning across northern Massachusetts, then conditions become generally dry today.

Very warm to hot weather is expected today, although smoke and haze will help limit daytime heating.

Dangerous rip currents are expected at south-facing beaches today.

Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity return during the second half of the week, but showers and thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Strong thunderstorms possible early this morning in northern Massachusetts, then generally dry today**

Forecasters continue to closely monitor a cluster of strong thunderstorms moving southeast across Vermont after producing very large hail in northern New York. While forecast models have suggested these storms should weaken before reaching southern New England, there is still a risk that some stronger storms could survive into northern Massachusetts between about 3 AM and 7 AM.

The atmosphere contains abundant energy for thunderstorms. Meteorologists refer to this as **CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)**, which measures how much fuel is available for storms. Values remain unusually high for New England. In addition, **lapse rates**, the rate at which temperatures cool with height, are steep enough to support stronger storm development. Winds at different levels of the atmosphere are also favorable for individual storms that can split into separate cells instead of forming one continuous line.

The primary threats are frequent lightning and hail, with some hail possibly becoming large in the strongest storms. While the greatest severe weather threat remains just north and west of the region, residents across northern Massachusetts should remain alert during the early morning hours.

As the storms move offshore, a cold front will settle across northern Massachusetts before gradually drifting south during the day. Behind the front, humidity levels will begin to decrease as winds shift to the west northwest. Although an isolated afternoon thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out across parts of Connecticut and western Rhode Island, most locations should remain dry through the remainder of the day.

**Key Message 2, Very warm to hot today, but tempered by hazy and smoky conditions**

It remains very warm and humid early this morning, with some locations still above 80 degrees and dew points remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Because of the warm overnight temperatures, the Heat Advisory remains in effect. Afternoon heat index values, which combine temperature and humidity to estimate how hot it feels, should reach the middle to upper 90s before humidity gradually begins to decrease.

Smoke from ongoing wildfires in northern Minnesota and western Ontario will once again spread across southern New England today and Thursday. Forecast guidance indicates a significant amount of smoke high in the atmosphere, along with some smoke closer to the ground this afternoon, especially across the southern half of the region.

The smoke is expected to produce hazy, milky skies, colorful red and orange sunrises and sunsets, and may even be noticeable by smell. Some localized reductions in visibility are also possible. The smoke should also reduce daytime heating somewhat, keeping afternoon high temperatures mainly in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees instead of climbing even higher.

Any air quality alerts would be issued by state environmental agencies, while the National Weather Service would help communicate those alerts.

**Key Message 3, Dangerous rip currents expected on south-facing beaches today**

West southwest winds over the coastal waters and waves of 4 to 6 feet will create a high risk for dangerous rip currents along south-facing beaches.

Anyone visiting the beach should swim near lifeguards and avoid walking or standing on jetties, where conditions can become especially hazardous.

**Key Message 4, Seasonable temperatures with less humidity during the second half of the week, but unsettled weather returns this weekend**

The large area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that has dominated the weather pattern will gradually shift southeast while a broad upper-level trough, an area of cooler air and lower atmospheric pressure aloft, settles over eastern Canada and New England.

A cold front moving through late Wednesday into early Thursday will bring more comfortable humidity levels and temperatures closer to normal for mid-July. Meteorologists often monitor temperatures near the **925 millibar level**, roughly 2,500 feet above the ground, to estimate daytime highs. Those temperatures support afternoon highs mainly in the 80s, although Thursday could briefly reach the lower 90s because of sunshine and a westerly breeze.

Forecast guidance also suggests several small disturbances moving through the northwest flow later this week could bring occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

By the weekend, winds are expected to turn more southerly, allowing more moisture to return. Meteorologists measure the total moisture in the atmosphere using **PWAT (Precipitable Water)**. Increasing precipitation values indicate a more humid atmosphere capable of producing heavier rainfall. A developing area of low pressure approaching from the west is expected to increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday, although the exact timing remains uncertain.