Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
Issued 716 AM EDT Wednesday, June 3, 2026

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes to the overall forecast, though minor refinements were made to weekend timing and temperature confidence.

**Key Messages**

* Quiet and dry stretch of weather through the end of the work week, with increasingly warm temperatures.

* Potentially unsettled and cooler conditions late this weekend into early next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Quiet and dry stretch of weather through the end of the work week, with increasingly warm temperatures**

Confidence remains fairly high in dry weather through Friday as high pressure at the surface shifts from the Great Lakes toward the southeastern United States, while a mid level ridge, an area of warmer and more stable air aloft, develops across the Northeast behind a departing trough, an area of lower pressure in the upper atmosphere. Forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this overall pattern, supporting continued quiet and pleasant conditions.

Today, a well mixed boundary layer, meaning air is mixing efficiently from the surface upward, combined with temperatures around 5,000 feet above the ground (850 mb temperatures) rising to roughly 50 to 54 degrees, should support afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland. A fairly strong sea breeze will keep immediate south and east coastal areas cooler, with the warmest readings likely occurring earlier in the afternoon. Expect periods of fair weather cumulus clouds mixed with abundant sunshine. Dewpoints generally below 50 degrees will help maintain very comfortable conditions.

The mid level ridge strengthens Thursday into Friday as temperatures around 5,000 feet rise to approximately 55 to 59 degrees. Combined with deep atmospheric mixing and west to northwest winds aloft creating compressional warming and downsloping off the higher terrain of western Massachusetts, temperatures should climb into the middle and upper 80s Thursday. Downsloping occurs when air descends higher terrain and warms as it sinks. The greatest chance for 90 degree temperatures Thursday will be across the Connecticut River Valley, where these warming effects will be strongest.

Friday is expected to be the warmer of the two days, with highs reaching the upper 80s and potentially lower 90s. The warmer temperatures should become more widespread across the coastal plain away from the immediate shoreline, while onshore winds continue to provide some cooling right along the coast. National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance continues to indicate a 70 to 75 percent chance of exceeding 90 degrees across the Connecticut River Valley Friday afternoon, while much of the coastal plain away from the shoreline has a 40 to 60 percent chance. Immediate coastal communities should remain cooler because of local sea breezes.

**Key Message 2, Potentially unsettled and cooler conditions late this weekend into early next week**

There remains moderate confidence through early Saturday, but confidence decreases by late Saturday afternoon as forecast models continue to differ on the timing of an approaching frontal boundary.

Saturday is trending toward a more favorable period for dry and warm daytime conditions, although the exact timing of the approaching front remains uncertain. This could allow much of the day to stay dry while unusually warm conditions continue ahead of the front. Temperatures around 5,000 feet are forecast to increase to approximately 63 to 66 degrees. Even with increasing cloud cover, this could still support a warm to hot day. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s remain possible, with dewpoints in the 60s creating a more humid feel. The greatest chance for temperatures above 90 degrees remains across the interior river valleys.

NBM guidance indicates a 25 to 40 percent chance of exceeding 95 degrees across portions of the Springfield to Hartford corridor Saturday afternoon. Confidence in reaching those temperatures remains low to moderate because cloud cover and the timing of the front could limit daytime heating.

By Sunday, a more defined mid level trough and an associated shortwave disturbance, a smaller scale area of energy moving through the atmosphere, become established over southern New England. This pattern supports a stronger signal for scattered showers as weak low pressure develops along a weakening frontal boundary. Temperatures are expected to trend noticeably cooler, generally 10 to 15 degrees lower than Saturday, although exact values will depend on the timing of the front and cloud cover.

Unsettled and cooler conditions may continue into Monday as the mid level trough could evolve into a weak closed low pressure system. This would maintain the possibility of additional showers. Gradual improvement is possible by Tuesday as the system slowly moves away from the region.