Skies will clear out tonight and will cool air in place, temps will drop into the 50s here in Southern NH. A complicated set up for Thursday with mutiple waves of low pressure crossing New England. Some will bring showers and the threat of a thunderstorm or two. At the moment it looks like the most severe weather remains south of the Monadnocks. If you were expecting, or hoping, for some hot summer weather, you won’t be seeing any for the rest of July. The hot summer air has been bottled up in the mid west and west for most of the summer. Frankly, personally, I think this has been one of the worst months of July in memory.
High pressure centered to our northwest will crest over the area tonight before shifting offshore tomorrow. A seasonably dry airmass will be over the region tonight as dewpoints will be in the upper 30s to mid 50s. Cresting high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies and light winds allowing for radiational cooling tonight with lows dropping to near 40F in northern valleys to the mid 50s across southern urban centers. Despite the dry airmass, efficient cooling tonight will allow for areas of fog to develop, especially along the CT River Valley and northern valleys.
High pressure shifts offshore Thursday with return flow advecting higher dewpoint air back into the forecast area. All the while multiple short waves will be translating through the persistent mid- level trough that has dominated our weather pattern the past several weeks. Mesoscale guidance shows that with multiple short waves there will be a triple barrel low/multiple mesolows approaching from the west Thursday afternoon.
The general consensus is that at least one low center will pass to our north and another low center passes to our south with middle low passing near overhead Thursday night. This setup, with at leas one mesolow passing to our south, will keep a warm front from advancing farther north than southern New England as well as keeping the best instability to our south.
For the most part, am expecting the first half of Thursday to be dry with increasing clouds from southwest to northeast. Showers with embedded convection are expected to develop over New Hampshire by mid-afternoon spreading into western Maine by early evening. Precipitable Water estimates will run around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and with elevated instability moderate to potentially heavy rainfall can be expected late Thursday into early Friday morning. Weather Prediction Center has the entire forecast area outlined in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, which seems reasonable given the antecedent wet weather pattern and the potential for heavy cells to track over the same area. However, current Quantitative Precipitation forecasts are between 0.75 to 1 inch, which should not bring much in the way of hydrologic impacts, although will need to watch for training convection.
There are signs that as we head into the middle part of next week that there will be a change in the weather pattern. For much of July we have been dealing with an east coast trough of low pressure with a west coast ridge of high pressure. The new pattern that appears to be setting up has a trough of low pressure over the middle of the continent and an upper level ridge developing off the east coast. This could promote a Bermuda High surface weather pattern just beyond this long term period. Before we get there on Tuesday and Wednesday we will be in a more zonal flow with moderating temperatures and no significant rain makers.
If you`re looking for a typical summer day, today will defintely dissapoint. With occlusion just our south, and fairly strong surface high centered over Nova Scotia, onshore flow at the surface, and moist southerly flow aloft will bring a lot of clouds, and keep temps mostly in the 60s. The warmest spots will be in the CT River Valley and in the mountains on the NW sides of the slopes, where the downslope will allow for added warming and some breaks of sun. There`s some scattered light showers moving through NH this morning, which will weaken in the face of ridging aloft before they make it into ME, and will eventually wind down by this afternoon as the warm air advection aloft weakens as well.
Cloudy tonight with a chance of drizzle along the coast and here in Southern NH. Otherwise it will remain cloudy with temps falling off a little but lows will mostly fall into the 60-65 range, except for the mid-coast and the ME mountains where lows make it to the upper 50s. There`s till a slight chance of a stray shower popping up, given the weak warm air advection aloft, with the best chance along the international border as a weak wave passes across Quebec toward daybreak.
On Wednesday the surface front begins to make some headway into southern and western NH. This may allow some breaks of sun in NH by midday, and temps to rise into the mid 70s to around 80, while the marine layer will remain tough to break in ME, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low 70s, except mid to upper 60s mid-coast. Also on the rise will be dew point temps, as they work into the mid-upper 60s. More humid. After some spotty drizzle in the first part of the morning, I think the day will be mostly dry, but approaching weak wave from the west, will allow for a very weak cold front to approach from the west. This will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms, probably not moving into the W zones until late afternoon, and spreading E toward sunset. Given the increasing instability as well as the strengthening flow aloft, could see some significant wind gusts with this line as well.
A trough of low pressure will begin the long term portion of the forecast Wednesday night triggering showers and with sufficient instability, perhaps a thunderstorm across the region. In agreement with the Storm Prediction Center with the marginal chance for a strong to severe storm to potentially be over the Connecticut River Valley. Chances remain high over southernmost New Hampshire as well. Meanwhile, a southerly flow will allow for patchy drizzle and fog to move in off the Gulf of Maine which will last into Thursday morning.
There will not be much in the way of push to this front over the weekend. This system will likely get hung up across southern New Hampshire and southern Maine, allowing for more scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday. This unsettled pattern may last into Monday.
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11+ inches of rainfall for July! A new July Record for NH...
It is official. This is the wettest July on record for southern NH. That says someting as records go back to 1860 here in NH.
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See how much rain we’ve received thus far in 2021.
Current Pollen Counts can be found in Weather Graphic 3
Drought map is updated every Thursday afternoon - Link
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High pressure moves offshore tomorrow morning followed by low pressure bringing showers with embedded thunder late tomorrow into Friday morning. A cold front crosses Friday for additional chances of showers and thunder followed by high pressure Saturday into Sunday. The active weather pattern continues early next week with another system approaching late Sunday into Monday with temperatures continuing to average below normal.
Tonight bring mainly dry conditions. The threat for showers will once again increase during the day Thursday and Thursday night, with showers likely, and a few strong thunderstorms possible. A noticeably cooler and much drier air mass filters into Southern New England Friday afternoon into Friday night, with northwesterly breezes. Seasonable and dry on Saturday. A frontal system brings increased clouds and periods of rain for Sunday. Dry weather returns for Monday before our weather pattern turns more unsettled into the middle of next week.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
* Shower threat increases during Thu, then continue Thu night
* A few thunderstorms possible, a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms for part of the area
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Rain ends early Fri. Turning much drier with low humidity levels
and increasingly breezy Fri aftn into Fri eve, with unseasonably
* Sat is the pick of the weekend with sunny skies, dry weather and
low humidity along with modest northwest breezes.
* Cloudy with periods of rain for Sun.
* Seasonable and dry Mon, turning more unsettled into midweek.
Skies will become partly sunny on Wednesday after some early low clouds, fog, and a slight chance of a shower.
A spot shower is possible the rest of the day. Highs will top off in the 70s. In addition to the partial sun, the smoke and haze will thin out quite a bit by midday with much cleaner air taking over during the afternoon.
Updates twice per day, weekdays, by 7:00AM and again by 7:30PM - 9AM/7PM on Weekends
Forecasts are for Southern NH (Nashua) to Keene NH with other locations noted.
(PB = Peterborough, NH) - (KE = Keene, NH)
Click on the button below to go to the Advisory depicted in the map below. When the button is jiggling, an advisory is active.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Calm wind.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Calm wind.
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 76. Light southwest wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9pm and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
A 40 percent chance of showers before 9am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
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