Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
251 AM EDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes to the forecast.

**Key Messages**

* More seasonable temperatures, dry weather and comfortable humidities through tonight. Scattered pop-up showers across far western New England later Wednesday afternoon.

* High astronomical tides with less than a foot of storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the late evening high tides tonight.

* Gusty southerly winds with some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday. Watching the severe weather potential too, but right now thinking main threat will be to our southwest.

* Beautiful stretch of weather Friday through Monday with warm afternoons and comfortable humidity.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1**

More seasonable temperatures, dry weather and comfortable humidities through tonight. Scattered pop-up showers across far western New England later Wednesday afternoon.

Southern New England remains positioned between a nearly stationary area of low pressure over Nova Scotia and weak high pressure over the central Appalachians. This pattern will maintain a light northwest to west wind across the region, except for localized sea breezes that develop later this morning and continue into this evening. The sea breeze is expected to arrive somewhat later than normal, likely during the early afternoon.

A stronger south wind develops Wednesday. Most of the day should remain dry, but a few isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out across western Massachusetts. Atmospheric instability, which helps showers and thunderstorms develop, appears limited because of relatively low dew points and temperatures mainly in the 70s. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored.

**Key Message 2**

High astronomical tides with less than a foot of storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the late evening high tides tonight.

Minor coastal flooding and wave splashover were observed around the late evening high tide. The higher of the two daily high tides will continue to be the late evening cycle. Tide levels are expected to gradually decrease through the week.

Localized minor coastal flooding remains possible in the usual vulnerable locations. As a result, Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect instead of Coastal Flood Advisories. Areas of greatest concern include Morrissey Boulevard and low-lying sections of Nantucket, which have experienced flooding during recent high tide cycles. Additional advisories may still be needed depending on conditions.

**Key Message 3**

Gusty southerly winds with some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday. Watching the severe weather potential too, but right now thinking main threat will be to our southwest.

An area of low pressure tracking northeast through Quebec will push a pre-frontal trough and cold front toward Southern New England on Thursday.

Ahead of these features, a strong corridor of winds a few thousand feet above the ground, known as a low-level jet, is expected to strengthen to 45 to 55 knots. Some of that stronger wind may mix down to the surface, resulting in southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures should reach the upper 70s to middle 80s.

Some showers are expected very late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a warm front crosses the region. Another round of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through.

Forecasters are also monitoring the risk for severe weather because of the strong wind energy available in the atmosphere. At this time, the greatest severe weather threat appears likely to remain southwest of Southern New England, where stronger instability is expected to develop.

**Key Message 4**

Beautiful stretch of weather Friday through Monday with warm afternoons and comfortable humidity.

Two upper-level low pressure systems south of Hudson Bay will help keep the Northeast under somewhat cooler air aloft than is typical for mid-June. This pattern should suppress deeper moisture farther south and result in an extended period of pleasant weather.

High temperatures will generally range from 75 to 85 degrees, accompanied by comfortable humidity levels. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Weather conditions should remain mostly dry through this period. A weak disturbance moving through the northern branch of the jet stream could trigger a few brief daytime showers, but most locations are expected to remain dry.