Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 303 PM EDT Friday, September 25, 2026**

**What has changed**

No significant changes were made to the forecast, but the area of strongest winds has been shifted farther west based on the latest projected track of the Nor’easter.

**Key Messages**

* A strong, long-duration Nor’easter will bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding and beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain this weekend. Power outages are a concern, especially across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts. Rain and gusty winds will persist into Monday.

* One final day of wet and unsettled weather is expected Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Strong and potentially damaging wind gusts**

The overall forecast remains on track, although the storm track has shifted somewhat farther southwest. An unusually strong low pressure system for September will intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast over the next 24 hours. The NAEFS Situational Awareness Display, a tool used to compare current weather patterns with historical model data, indicates that this low pressure system is well outside the normal range for this time of year. This continues to support the potential for a significant and long-lasting Nor’easter.

The low will initially move westward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, then slowly turn northeast and weaken through early next week. This supports the strong and prolonged storm that has been expected for the region.

**Strong to damaging wind gusts**

The biggest concern with this storm will be the strong northeast winds. The long duration of the winds, combined with heavy rain and fully leafed trees, will increase the potential for tree damage and power outages. Trees with full foliage are more vulnerable to strong winds, especially when the ground becomes saturated by heavy rain.

Although the storm track has shifted farther southwest during the past 24 to 36 hours, the pressure difference across the region will still be strong enough to produce a long period of strong to damaging northeast wind gusts, especially across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts.

The strongest winds will reach Cape Cod and the Islands later tonight. A northeast low-level jet, meaning a concentrated area of stronger winds a few thousand feet above the ground, will reach about 63 to 75 mph. This stronger wind area will gradually shift westward Saturday into early Sunday, so the timing of the strongest surface wind gusts will vary by location.

Much of the immediate coast could see northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph, especially along the south coast. A few gusts of 65 to 70 mph are possible around Block Island, closer to the core of the stronger winds passing to the southwest.

High Wind Warnings continue along the coast into early Sunday morning. Farther inland, northeast wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected, with the strongest gusts potentially occurring across Connecticut, closer to the circulation of the Nor’easter. Because of the fully leafed trees and the long duration of the event, Wind Advisories remain in effect.

Overall, the combination of strong winds, tree damage, and power outages will likely be the biggest impact for most people.

**Beach erosion and coastal flooding**

Another major concern will be beach erosion and coastal flooding across multiple high tide cycles. Although this storm will not undergo rapid bombogenesis, meaning an extremely rapid strengthening of the storm, the persistence of strong northeast winds and high seas offshore is concerning.

A storm surge of about 1 to 2 feet, and briefly perhaps close to 2.5 feet, is expected along east-facing ocean beaches through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warnings continue along the eastern Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod and the Islands.

Water levels combined with offshore seas of 15 to 25 feet will produce minor coastal flooding, with a few pockets of low-end moderate flooding possible during each high tide cycle this weekend. The greatest concern may be severe beach erosion because of the long duration of strong northeast winds and high seas.

Astronomical high tides, meaning the naturally occurring tides caused by the positions of the Earth, Moon, and Sun, will increase through the weekend. Therefore, even as the winds eventually begin to weaken, coastal flooding and erosion will remain concerns. Because the storm will affect multiple high tide cycles, water may have difficulty draining away completely between high tides. Heavy rainfall could make these issues worse.

Overall, beach erosion could become one of the most significant impacts from this long-lasting storm.

Coastal Flood Advisories continue along the south coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Although the northeast winds may somewhat reduce water levels in some areas, very large swells generated by the Nor’easter to the south will send large waves northward. Falling atmospheric pressure will also contribute to rising water levels. Pockets of splashover, minor coastal flooding, and minor beach erosion are expected through the weekend.

**Steady and heavier rain from Saturday afternoon through Monday**

An initial area of rain near the south coast will move northwest tonight. Drier air farther north will cause the rain to become more scattered and showery as it moves inland, particularly near and northwest of the Interstate 95 corridor.

There will be scattered showers at times, but much of the early portion of the event could remain dry, with the initial rain focused mainly across southeastern New England. The heaviest rain for most locations is not expected until Saturday afternoon, but periods of rain will continue through Monday.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible. The greatest potential for these higher amounts may be near the coast, along the east slopes of the Connecticut Hills, and across the Worcester Hills and Berkshires, where northeast winds will force moist air upward.

A Flood Watch was not issued because the rainfall will be spread out over a long period. However, this situation will need to be monitored, particularly if confidence increases regarding the location of the potential 5 to 6 inch rainfall amounts.

**Key Message 2, Tuesday remains wet and unsettled before warmer and drier weather arrives**

The beginning of next week will still be influenced by the weakening Nor’easter, as the upper-level low, an area of lower pressure several miles above the surface, will be slow to move away.

While the strong winds and heavy rain of the weekend will not continue at the same intensity, Monday and Tuesday will remain wet and unsettled. By Tuesday afternoon, forecast guidance shows gradual clearing from southwest to northeast, with some breaks of sunshine possible later in the afternoon.

By Wednesday, the upper-level weather pattern will begin to change as a ridge, an area of higher pressure aloft, builds across the eastern United States. By Thursday, upper-level heights around 500 millibars are expected to build significantly and remain elevated through at least the end of the week according to ensemble forecast guidance.

Closer to the surface, temperatures about 5,000 feet above ground level are expected to run about 11 to 18 degrees above normal late next week. At the surface, this should translate into a period of late-summer-like warmth, with inland highs reaching the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s.

Outside of Tuesday, the next chance for precipitation arrives later Thursday into Friday as a weakening disturbance approaches from the west.

**What this means for you**

The weekend will bring a prolonged period of unsettled and potentially damaging weather, with the strongest concerns focused on wind, coastal flooding, beach erosion, heavy rain, and power outages. Conditions should gradually improve Tuesday afternoon, followed by a significant shift toward warmer and drier weather during the second half of next week.