Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME, 219 PM EDT
Tue Sep 22 2026**

**What has changed**

A Frost Advisory has been issued for parts of central New Hampshire and western Maine for tonight.

**Key Messages**

1. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern through late in the week.

2. A coastal storm may bring soaking rain, gusty winds, and high surf from Friday through the upcoming weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1**

High pressure will continue to build across northern New England over the next couple of days. This will bring seasonably cool air, along with chances for frost tonight and again Wednesday night.

A Frost Advisory has been issued for several areas across central New Hampshire and parts of western Maine. Farther south, a northeasterly breeze overnight should limit frost to isolated and patchy areas. Wednesday night looks even cooler as the center of high pressure moves overhead, allowing frost to become possible across more locations.

During the daytime, mainly sunny skies will continue, with high temperatures in the 60s.

While high pressure brings cool and fair weather to northern New England, it will also help keep a developing storm system off the Carolinas to our south. Surf will begin building Wednesday as a long easterly fetch, meaning a long stretch of wind blowing across the ocean, develops across the North Atlantic between the high pressure system and the developing storm.

Waves will steadily increase Thursday and through the end of the week, resulting in increasingly large breaking surf and a growing risk of rip currents. Most impacts on land from the storm system are expected to hold off until at least this weekend.

**Key Message 2**

Beginning Friday, an area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-Atlantic is forecast to slowly move northward and strengthen through Friday and early Saturday. The system may then stall and meander through at least the second half of the weekend.

There is slightly more agreement among the ensemble forecasts today regarding how far north the storm may move, but considerable uncertainty remains over how far offshore it stays and whether it could drift back west before moving away early next week.

The GEFS and AIGFS ensemble forecasts, which use multiple model runs to show a range of possible outcomes, generally favor the center of the low remaining closer to, but still south or east of, Cape Cod. Most of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts favor a somewhat farther west track, with the low remaining south of the southern New England coast. Both model groups also contain individual forecasts supporting the other possibilities, including a track farther offshore, so confidence in the exact storm track remains limited.

There is greater confidence that the pressure difference between the coastal low and high pressure to the north and west will produce a strong pressure gradient, meaning a tighter difference in air pressure that supports stronger winds. As a result, gusty north to northeast winds are increasingly likely, especially along the coast.

The long stretch of northerly to northeasterly winds will also help build ocean swells and seas across the Gulf of Maine. This will increase the threat of high surf and dangerous rip currents at area beaches.

These conditions will occur during a period of high astronomical tides, which are the naturally higher tides associated with the alignment of the Earth, moon, and sun. With the expected increase in winds and waves, coastal flooding will also be possible around times of high tide.

**Rainfall and Temperatures**

There is less confidence regarding how much rain will fall. However, there is potential for soaking rain, especially along the coast and across portions of southern New Hampshire.

The NBM, or National Blend of Models, shows the higher probability of precipitation along the coast and into southeastern New Hampshire. These probabilities are currently considered reasonable given the remaining uncertainty among the forecast models.

If the storm follows a wetter and cloudier track, temperatures may remain in the 50s.

**Looking Ahead**

The unsettled conditions could continue into Monday, but ensemble forecasts generally favor the coastal low pulling away to the east by Tuesday of next week.