Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, Boston/Norton, MA

National Weather Service
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 5:58 AM EST

What Has Changed

There are no significant changes to the forecast since the previous update.

Key Messages

- Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue through at least the middle to latter part of the week. High temperatures could reach the upper 60s to middle 70s, potentially challenging daily temperature records.
- More unsettled weather is expected later this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal, with periodic chances for rain.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Unseasonable Warmth and Dry Weather Continue

Dry weather and unusually warm temperatures will continue through the middle of the week. Afternoon highs will generally reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a few locations potentially climbing into the middle and upper 70s. These readings could challenge daily temperature records.

There is high confidence that warm and dry conditions will persist through much of the week. A strong ridge of high pressure in the middle levels of the atmosphere will remain in control across the eastern United States, with its center moving over our region through at least Wednesday. This weather pattern promotes sinking air, which discourages cloud development and helps maintain dry conditions.

Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground will be unusually warm, supporting a much warmer than normal air mass through Friday. Dry ground conditions and abundant sunshine could also allow afternoon temperatures to climb higher than currently projected. As a result, forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday have been increased by 3 to 5 degrees in the Connecticut and Merrimack Valleys. Temperatures in these areas could reach the middle and even upper 70s, potentially challenging daily records on both days.

Winds coming from the south-southwest will also bring more moisture into the region, increasing overnight dew points into the 50s and 60s from Wednesday night through Friday. This added moisture will help keep nighttime temperatures unusually mild. Both daytime high-temperature records and overnight warm-temperature records could be challenged during the week.

Key Message 2: Rain Chances Increase Later This Week

Unsettled weather is expected to return during the second half of the week and continue into the weekend, although temperatures will remain above normal for early November.

A strengthening area of warmer air in the middle levels of the atmosphere will continue building over southern New England through midweek. Combined with southwest to south winds, this will support afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to lower and middle 70s across much of southern New England on Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast models show a high likelihood of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon. That possibility remains elevated for Thursday as well, particularly across the southern coastal areas, where probabilities reach as high as 90 percent.

The return to more seasonable temperatures is not expected until the second half of the weekend, although that timing will depend on how the approaching storm system develops and moves through the region.

Forecast guidance continues to show increasing agreement that rain will return during the latter part of this week. A storm system moving in from the west will bring an unusually large amount of atmospheric moisture into southern New England. Forecast guidance suggests moisture levels could be two to three standard deviations above normal, meaning the atmosphere will contain considerably more moisture than is typical for this time of year.

A frontal system associated with an area of low pressure is expected to move across the region, bringing a good chance for periods of meaningful rainfall toward the end of the week.

The timing is still somewhat uncertain, but current forecasts suggest rain could begin as early as Thursday evening across western Massachusetts and Connecticut before spreading eastward through Friday. Some showers could linger into Sunday in parts of the region.

The potential for heavier rainfall remains something to watch. Current forecast guidance gives southern New England roughly a 30 to 70 percent chance of receiving at least one-half inch of rain during the 24-hour period ending Saturday morning.

There are still differences among the major forecast models regarding where the heaviest rainfall will occur. The Canadian and European models spread the better chances for heavier rainfall across much of southern New England as the front moves from west to east. The American model, however, focuses its higher rainfall potential more heavily on Cape Cod and portions of southeastern Massachusetts.

Because of these differences, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the storm system's exact development and movement. These factors will ultimately determine how much rain falls and whether a few thunderstorms develop as the system moves through.