Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026**

**What has Changed**

Forecast remains on track.

**Key Messages**

Humidity briefly trends down tonight, but then rises again Monday afternoon. Above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday.

Warmer and less humid Wednesday, with a strong cold front moving in early Thursday bringing a risk for showers and a low risk for storms.

Nice stretch of later-summer weather Friday into the weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Humidity and temperatures through Tuesday**

Mainly rain-free conditions are expected through Tuesday, with the exception of Monday afternoon into the evening, when a round of daytime showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

Humidity drops later tonight behind a weak cold front. This front should stall nearby before returning north as a warm front Monday afternoon into the evening. Dew points, a measure of moisture in the air, will increase again just south of this front.

A passing pocket of colder air aloft across northern New England should help produce CAPE values of 750 to 1,250 J/kg by late Monday afternoon. CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, is a measure of how much energy is available to help thunderstorms develop. The greatest risk for thunderstorms is expected to remain west of our region.

The warm front will then move back south as a cold front Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions are not expected to become humid enough to support widespread showers, especially early Tuesday when the front passes. Humidity begins falling Monday night and should reach a much more comfortable range by Tuesday afternoon and evening.

**Key Message 2, Warm Wednesday followed by a Thursday cold front**

Summer warmth continues Wednesday, but humidity will decrease substantially. Afternoon dew points are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, indicating noticeably drier air. Westerly winds that are not helping air masses converge will support dry weather.

Wednesday should be partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s.

A strong mid and upper-level trough, or dip in the jet stream and colder air aloft, along with a surface cold front will move through Southern New England Thursday. This will bring a substantial change in the air mass.

The timing of the front is important. Current forecasts suggest the front could reach the eastern Massachusetts coast by early afternoon. This timing would limit the amount of daytime instability, meaning there may not be enough atmospheric energy for widespread or strong thunderstorms.

There is currently a low risk for thunderstorms. However, if the front moves more slowly than expected, the risk for storms would increase, including a greater chance for some strong storms.

Thursday is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Dew points will fall through the afternoon and evening, reaching the low to mid 50s behind the front. Overnight lows should be in the 50s to around 60.

**Key Message 3, Cooler and drier weather Friday into the weekend**

The main story Friday into the weekend will be a much cooler and drier air mass settling over the Northeast.

Cooler air moving in from the west will lower temperatures about 5,000 feet above the surface, known as the 850 mb level, to around 46 to 50 degrees. This supports daytime highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected, with dew points falling into the 40s. Overall, Friday through the weekend should bring a pleasant stretch of late-summer weather, although temperatures may be slightly cooler than normal for mid August.

The next chance for showers or thunderstorms could arrive late Sunday or Monday, but the timing remains uncertain.