New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Current Temperature: 59.1°F (-1.4) 
High Temperature for the day: 69.5°F
Rainfall Today: 1.04 inches
Current Dewpoint: 57.4°F (-1.4)
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last update: 9/24 - 6:26 PM

The cold front that crossed part of the region today continues to very slowly track east. We had a little over one inch of rainfall here in the Monadnocks with some it very heavy for a short time. Bouts of showers followed but now, the sun has popped out late this afternoon. The atmosphere is unstable, so there is still a chnace of a pop up showers or storm tonight. Another front will begin to move in on Saturday with increasing clouds but any rain holds off until late in the day or the evening. Sunday looks sunny and breezy.
Hazardous Weather Outlook: NH/ME
Hurricane Sam has formed in the Atlantic and is rapidly strengthening.
It might be a good idea to check the Hurricane Section each day this time of year.

The Details:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING:
Cold front is progressing through the area. To the west, across NH the clearing skies are approaching. Meanwhile through Maine southerly flow will continue with showers. Low level instability remains, and some weak rotation has been observed in the convective line. Some reports of up to 2 inches of rain within the convective line.

Expect the front to continue to cross the region overnight. Overall the coverage of showers has been decreasing through the day but the models continues to suggest that some re development. through the mountains is possible over the next few hours.

Tonight the western portion of the forecast area should clear out enough for valley fog formation, and have added this to the forecast. Meanwhile across the eastern portion of the area, the front will stall keeping the scattered showers in place across the eastern portion of the area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY:
For Saturday, expect additional rainfall, especially over the eastern portion of the forecast area. There are two separate features impacting the amount of rainfall. First, a weak wave rotating around the main low pressure aloft will push into the region. The more negative tilt this can achieve the greater the precipitation. Secondly, low pressure along the eastern seaboard will move northwards on Sunday, pushing additional moisture into the stalled frontal boundary. These two factors will combine to lead to widespread rainfall across especially eastern Maine. With two feature competing the confidence in the placement and precip maxima still remains fairly low. Have kept total rainfall fairly conservative, although certainly the upslope flow does give a potential for higher totals. This time the center of the rain will be on the upper Kennebec basin, which has been plagued by drought.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm ridging will be replaced by cooler and more seasonable troughing over the NE CONUS next week, as double omega block settles across NOAM and the Atlantic, with central trough right overhead. This low holds in place thru at least the middle of next week, when models diverge on solutions.

Starting Sunday sun night should see any showers associated with the slow moving front exiting to the NE in the evening. This will be followed by clearing in the south, but clouds linger in the N as the closed upper low wobbles around over N Quebec. Lows Sunday night will be in the low-mid 40s in the mtns, to the low 50s in the S.

Mon-Tue will be similar, as closed low hangs out to the North, and waves of energy move around that low. This will produce some rounds of clouds, and the chance of showers, mainly in the mountains. Highs will be in the low-mid 60s in the North to around 70 in the South, which is still on the high side of normal, and overnight lows 40-45 in the mountains to the low 50s in the South. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy through the period with more clouds in the mountains.

Confidence drops off a bit Wed-Fri.

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Regional Synopsis