New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Current Temperature: 35.4°F (-0.8) 
High Temperature for the day: 37.4°F
Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches
Current Dewpoint: 25.6°F (-2.2)
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last update: 12/04 - 7:21 PM

Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 20s. We have had a few snow showers drop a dusting of snow early this having. These will move east tonight so beware of them.
Sunday looks mostly sunny, similiar day today. Snow showers or some freezing precipitation may move in very early Monday morning ahead of an advancing storm system that will track to our west, bringing New Hampshire and New England a rainstorm. Early AM travelers may encounter slippery spots.
Gusty winds along the coast my reach 60 MPH!
Watching the next storm, mid week, that may bring our first snowfall of the season. However, there is nothing set in stone.

The Details:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING:
630 PM Update...Weak clipper system will move eastward across the central portion of the forecast area over the next few hours. So far the snow showers have been fighting a lot of low level dry air with not much in the way making it to the ground. However, the low levels should moisten enough shortly to allow for a few accumulating snow showers and squalls, mainly across northern and central zones - along and north of weak low pressure.

Previously...

Mosaic radar late this afternoon shows an area of snow showers located across upstate NY and extending into VT. This activity is in association with a clipper/shortwave trough, which will move across the area later tonight. Forecast soundings show dry low-levels along with fairly modest lift within the snow growth layer. While this should overall limit the extent of the snow shower activity, a little extra lift combined with some weak frontal forcing may allow for an isolated heavier snow shower or even snow squall to develop this evening, especially across the Whites. This has already been observed across portions of VT, where visibility has been locally reduced to around a quarter mile in snow. High resolution forecast guidance continues to favor northern and eastern areas to experience a few scattered snow showers, and therefore kept PoPs highest across these locations. Snow accumulations will be light but there could be a couple of inches across the far north and mountains. This activity will exit to our east by around 3-5 am, with just some lingering upslope snow showers possible across the north thereafter. Low temperatures will range from the teens across the north to the 20s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the area from the west on Sunday, which will allow for a mostly sunny day with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s south of the mountains. Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy on Sunday evening and night, ahead of our next storm system which will pass by to the west. A few scattered showers may develop towards dawn, which will likely fall as some snow across the interior.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
Pattern across the Northern hemisphere continues to show a transition to higher wave number over the next week or so, but only based on small increase in amplitude of the waves. The mid latitude pattern still looks quite progressive, which should lead to continued changeable conditions, although, we may see somewhat larger swings between temps during cold and warm spells.


Monday is the main focus of the forecast, for now, as deepening surface low tracks NE through the Great Lakes and into Ontario and Quebec. With strong surface high lingering to our East, we will see a strong Southern flow developing, which will push warm air, and precip into the region. By the Monday morning commute, we will likely see rain in all but the mountains, which will be steadier in the N and W, which will be closer to occlusion and more of a showery nature in the S and E, which will be in the warm sector. This looks mostly like more of a light rain, although could see a band of more moderate rain late in the day and into the evening just ahead of the front. Strong low level jet also moves through Monday afternoon and evening just ahead of the cold front, with wind speed of 50-60 kts. Still, looks like enough of an inversion will be in place to prevent full mixing with wind gusts to 25-35 mph through the afternoon, especially closer to the coast and over the hills and mountaintops. Highs will push into the 50s across much of the area perhaps reaching 60 in southern NH and far SW ME. The front crosses the region early to mid evening, which will allow steady rain to end with only a few showers. May actually see the strongest wind gusts for a couple of hours behind the front Mon evening, with gusts of around 40 mph possible, especially across southern NH and the ME coast. Lows will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s, but any precip should be ending by midnight, before temps go below freezing. The only exception will be upslope snowshower in the mountains.

Tuesday will be sunny, breezy and cool with highs 25-30 in the N, an mid to upper 30s in the S. Tuesday will be dry, but clouds will be on the increase with lows 10-15 in the mountains, and around 20 in the South. Next precip maker will arrive Wed, and looks like a mainly snow event. Might see some rain on the coast. The 17AM gfs model shows a decent storm intensifying offshore with deformation banding forming across the forecast area, and a fair amount of snow, while the 12 Euro model shows the low moving further to our S and E with inverted trough supplying a few inches of snow, with most of it South of the mountains. GEFS and Euro EPS models currently side more with Euro with snow in the mountains around advisory levels Wed afternoon into Wed night. Overall though, the model continue to trend to more of an offshore system, but still differ quite a bit on the intensity track and the phasing interactions.

Thursday looks cold, but mainly dry with highs only in the mid 20s to mid 30s, with unsettled conds returning for Friday into next weekend, although there looks to be a warming trend by Saturday.

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Site News

Note: As we approach the winter season (First time for this new website layout)It has become clear to me that the detail box above, with the forecast details, will not suffice. Expect changes to the location of this information in the near future.
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