Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 142 PM EDT Thursday, October 8, 2026

**What has Changed**

Confidence has increased in the arrival of remnant tropical moisture Sunday afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rainfall favoring the south coast. Improving conditions are expected later Monday.

**Key Messages**

Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions continue through Friday night, with westerly afternoon breezes in the 20 to 30 mph range. Frost is possible Friday night.

Sunny and dry weather is expected Saturday with light winds.

Rain is increasingly likely Sunday afternoon into Columbus Day as remnant tropical moisture moves into southern New England. A soaking rain is possible, especially near the south coast, before conditions improve later Monday. Additional showers are possible Tuesday, followed by cooler weather Wednesday.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Friday through Friday night**

Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions are expected through Friday night, with westerly afternoon breezes generally in the 20 to 30 mph range. Frost is possible Friday night.

A broad area of low pressure aloft is keeping cooler air in place across the region, while a large area of surface high pressure, with pressures around 1024 to 1028 mb, extends from the Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic. This high pressure area will move into southern New England by late Friday night into Saturday.

A smaller disturbance moving through the larger area of low pressure aloft could produce a few isolated showers, especially north of the Massachusetts Turnpike this afternoon. However, most of the region should remain dry.

The upper-level trough will keep the lower atmosphere relatively cool, while daytime heating promotes strong mixing through the atmosphere. This will support westerly breezes and falling dewpoint temperatures this afternoon and again Friday from mid-morning through sunset. Westerly winds will generally gust to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon, with some gusts reaching 30 mph. Similar, or slightly stronger, gusts are expected Friday.

Friday will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures mainly in the mid 60s.

High pressure will move into southern New England Friday night, allowing winds to decrease and skies to remain favorable for efficient overnight cooling. This type of cooling, known as radiational cooling, occurs when heat escapes from the surface quickly under lighter winds and clearer skies.

How quickly the winds decrease will be important for Friday night temperatures and the potential for frost. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper 30s in typically colder outlying locations, with lows in the low to mid 40s in urban areas and along the coast. Frost advisories may eventually be needed for some areas, depending on how quickly the winds decrease.

**Key Message 2, Saturday**

Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend, with high pressure directly over southern New England before moving offshore Saturday evening.

After a chilly start, temperatures should rebound into the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny to sunny skies. Winds will be light, making Saturday a good day for outdoor plans.

Warmer air will begin moving into the region Saturday evening, with a modest increase in southeast winds. Overnight lows should be considerably milder than Friday night, generally in the mid 40s to low 50s.

**Key Message 3, Sunday through Wednesday**

Rain is increasingly likely Sunday afternoon into Columbus Day as moisture associated with what was once a tropical system moves into southern New England. The region will not be directly affected by a tropical system. Instead, the area will receive moisture left behind by a former tropical system.

Forecast guidance is coming into better agreement on the arrival of this moisture, with rain increasingly likely Sunday afternoon and evening and continuing into Columbus Day. The main uncertainty is how far north the area of rain will extend. The heaviest rainfall continues to favor locations closer to the south coast.

The system should move through fairly quickly, with conditions improving during the second half of Monday.

There is potential for a soaking rain, especially across southern portions of the region. DESI, or Deterministic Ensemble Statistical Information, probabilities for at least 0.50 inches of rainfall from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday remain around 45 percent across northern Massachusetts, increasing to 60 to 75 percent along and south of Hartford, Providence and Taunton. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out. The probability of 2 inches or more is around 10 to 20 percent from Montauk Point through coastal Rhode Island, including Block Island, into southeastern Massachusetts and the Islands.

Because the system is expected to move through quickly, the overall flooding threat appears low. However, localized flooding in areas with poor drainage cannot be completely ruled out, especially where fallen leaves could clog storm drains. The potential for severe weather remains uncertain, and the tropical origins of the moisture mean that even a low-end severe weather threat will need to be monitored.

A brief break in the rain is expected late Monday into early Tuesday. Another round of showers is likely Tuesday as a cold front moves through.

Temperatures will remain mild for October, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday through Tuesday. Dewpoint temperatures, which indicate the amount of moisture in the air, will rise into the middle to upper 50s Sunday and into the 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Behind the cold front, a cooler and drier air mass arrives Wednesday. High temperatures will fall back into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while dewpoint temperatures drop into the 40s to lower 50s.