Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME, 225 PM EDT Monday, October 5, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes have been made to the overall forecast. Afternoon showers were more widespread than originally expected, with a few reports of small hail in the stronger showers. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate over the higher terrain this evening as winds increase and temperatures fall.

**Key Messages**

1. The coldest air of the fall season so far will arrive through tonight, bringing blustery and chilly conditions through Tuesday night. Dangerous conditions are expected over the higher terrain during this period. Frost and freezing conditions will reach close to the coast Tuesday night.

2. A warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday before another Canadian cold front brings cooler air back into the region for the end of the week and coming weekend. The main chance for precipitation during this period will be in the form of mountain showers.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

A strong cold front has pushed across the area, producing showers and even a few rumbles of thunder along the international border. Some small hail has accompanied the stronger showers.

Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground were around 46 degrees this morning and are expected to fall to around 25 degrees by daybreak Tuesday, remaining near the freezing mark through Tuesday night. This process, known as cold air advection, or CAA, means colder air is being transported into the region. It will drive temperatures into the 30s across most areas tonight. However, winds are expected to remain mixed with the air above the surface, which should help prevent frost in locations where the growing season is still active.

Wind will be the primary concern Tuesday. Strong winds several thousand feet above the ground are expected to reach the equivalent of 35 to 46 mph. Strong mixing will continue through Tuesday, but the arrival of cold air will have ended, and there does not appear to be much additional support for bringing the strongest winds down to the surface. As a result, surface wind gusts are expected to generally reach 35 to 40 mph. No wind headlines have been added to the forecast at this time.

Tuesday night will be chilly as high pressure moves in and allows surface winds to weaken in most areas. Nearly all locations away from the immediate coast are likely to see frost, while a hard freeze is likely farther inland where the growing season has already ended. Forecast guidance supports overnight lows in the upper 20s in the mountains and lower to middle 30s elsewhere.

**Key Message 2 Description**

After a brief period of weak high pressure Tuesday night, winds several thousand feet above the ground will shift toward the southwest ahead of the next disturbance and associated cold front. That front is expected to pass through the region Thursday night.

Temperatures will warm quickly Wednesday and especially Thursday. Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground will rise to the upper 40s, and with good mixing through the atmosphere, this should allow afternoon highs to reach the 70s south and east of the mountains. Shower chances with the cold front should be largely confined to the mountains.

Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground will fall back to the upper 30s to middle 40s by Friday and into the weekend. This will result in seasonable afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s from north to south. Overall, no high-impact weather is expected across the forecast area from Wednesday through the weekend.