Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME**
**225 PM EDT Sunday June 7 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Confidence is increasing that some level of heat risk will develop during the second half of next week. However, uncertainty remains regarding how high temperatures may ultimately climb.

**Key Messages**

1. A cold front continues to bring showers and thunderstorms through this evening, followed by dry and seasonably warm conditions Monday.

2. Heat and humidity build during the second half of the week, creating a growing heat risk along with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

**Synopsis**

**Key Message 1 Description**

A cold front continues to slowly move through northern New England this afternoon as an area of low pressure tracks from Quebec into eastern Maine. Scattered showers will continue into the evening hours, with isolated thunderstorms possible across southern Maine and New Hampshire through early evening.

The front moves offshore later this evening, allowing skies to gradually clear overnight. Recent rainfall, combined with clear skies and light winds, will likely lead to areas of valley fog north of the mountains tonight. This is especially likely where radiational cooling, the process of heat escaping into the atmosphere after sunset, is most effective.

High pressure builds into the region Monday behind the front, bringing a much drier air mass and seasonably warm temperatures. Nearly full sunshine should help temperatures rise into the middle 70s across northern areas and the lower 80s in locations downwind of the mountains. Light northwesterly winds may allow a weak sea breeze to develop during the afternoon, although it is expected to remain mostly confined to the immediate coastline.

The high pressure system shifts south of New England Monday night, beginning a warming trend that continues into midweek. The warmer air mass will already be noticeable Monday night, with overnight lows only falling into the upper 40s across the north and middle 50s along the coast.

**Key Message 2 Description**

The weather pattern this week will be dominated by a large area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will allow heat and humidity to gradually build over several days.

During the first half of the week, forecast models are in good agreement that temperatures several thousand feet above the ground, known as 850 millibar temperatures and commonly used by meteorologists to estimate future surface temperatures, will warm significantly. This should support highs in the lower to middle 80s north of the mountains and middle to upper 80s farther south.

Initially, humidity levels will remain fairly comfortable. Dewpoints, which measure the amount of moisture in the air and are often a better indicator of how humid it feels, are expected to remain in the 50s through the first part of the week.

By Wednesday, the center of the upper level ridge shifts east of the region, turning winds more southwesterly. This will transport additional moisture into New England, causing dewpoints to rise into the upper 60s. Combined with increasing temperatures, conditions will begin to feel noticeably more humid and uncomfortable.

There is still some variation among forecast models, but a middle-ground forecast suggests temperatures aloft could reach levels that rank near the top 10 percent of historical values for this time of year by late in the work week. If that occurs, widespread afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are likely, with some of the warmer locations in the Merrimack Valley approaching 90 degrees.

The added humidity will make it feel even warmer than the actual air temperature. While confidence is not yet high enough to officially discuss a heat wave, which locally requires three consecutive days with temperatures above 90 degrees, heat advisories could eventually become necessary in portions of the forecast area. This concern is increased by the possibility of nighttime temperatures only falling into the middle 60s, limiting overnight cooling and allowing heat to build over multiple days.

Higher elevations will remain somewhat cooler, and coastal communities should benefit from regular sea breezes that help moderate temperatures.

The increasing moisture will also lead to a greater chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms later in the week. While exact coverage remains uncertain this far out, current indications suggest a typical summertime pattern with isolated to scattered storms rather than widespread severe weather.