Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
626 AM EST Wednesday November 4, 2026

What Has Changed

No significant changes to the forecast since the previous update.

Key Messages

- Unseasonable warmth and dry weather continues today.
- Wet and unsettled weather returns Thursday into this weekend. Above-normal temperatures continue initially, before cooler conditions arrive Sunday and beyond.

Discussion

Key Message 1, Unseasonable warmth and dry weather continues today

There is little change to the overall weather pattern. High pressure over the North Atlantic will maintain steady south to southwest winds, helping bring another unusually warm day to the region. Forecasters are favoring the warmer temperature guidance, especially since temperatures did not cool much overnight.

Forecast models indicate a strong likelihood of temperatures reaching 15 to 20 degrees above normal today, particularly across eastern Massachusetts and the Connecticut River Valley. Some daily record highs could be matched or broken. The current records are 78 degrees in Boston, 77 degrees in Providence, 74 degrees in Worcester, and 78 degrees in Hartford.

Another unusually mild night is expected tonight, with overnight temperatures generally falling into the 50s. That is roughly comparable to the average daytime high temperatures for this time of year. A few locations could also approach or break records for the warmest overnight low temperatures.

Key Message 2, Wet and unsettled weather returns Thursday into this weekend, with above-normal temperatures before cooler conditions arrive Sunday and beyond

The extended stretch of unusually dry weather is expected to come to an end Thursday. Forecast guidance points toward approximately 36 to 48 hours of periodic rainfall, with some periods of potentially heavy rain.

The initial weather system will involve a cold front extending from an area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes. After crossing New York State, the front is expected to slow down and stall across New England from southwest to northeast late Thursday. This should bring the first chances for rain Thursday, mainly across western portions of southern New England. Areas southeast of the Hartford to Worcester line may remain mostly dry initially.

More widespread and heavier rainfall is expected to develop Friday into early Saturday as another area of low pressure forms along the stalled front. This secondary storm system will strengthen as it moves north near Cape Cod on Saturday, then intensify further over the Gulf of Maine Sunday. By then, much of the region should be on the drier side of the system.

There will be plenty of moisture available to fuel this storm. Persistent southwest winds ahead of the approaching upper-level weather system will transport very humid air into the region. Atmospheric moisture levels, measured by precipitable water (PWAT), are expected to exceed 1.5 inches, while dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. Dewpoints indicate the amount of moisture in the air, and readings this high are unusually humid for early November.

These conditions will produce very mild temperatures Friday morning, potentially in the lower 60s. More importantly, the abundant moisture will help support periods of heavier rainfall. The humid air could also create enough atmospheric instability for thunderstorms or other localized areas of heavier downpours. Additional lift in the atmosphere, associated with the developing storm and a powerful upper-level jet stream, will help enhance rainfall.

Rainfall and Flooding Potential

The exact location of the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain and will depend largely on where the stalled front ultimately settles. Forecast ensemble guidance currently suggests general rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with the greatest potential across central and eastern southern New England.

Different groups of forecast models are estimating varying probabilities of receiving at least 1 inch of rain. The European ensemble guidance indicates a 50 to 60 percent chance, while the American ensemble guidance suggests a 30 to 40 percent chance across the general area of concern.

Fortunately, the region has been quite dry recently, meaning rivers, streams, and surrounding ground conditions should be better able to handle the incoming rainfall. Widespread flash flooding is not currently expected to be a major concern. However, localized flooding remains possible in urban areas and locations with poor drainage, particularly where fallen leaves are blocking storm drains.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Friday into Saturday. This represents a limited but recognized potential for isolated flooding.

Looking Ahead

Beyond Saturday, a few scattered showers may continue as the upper-level trough, an elongated area of lower atmospheric pressure, slowly moves away from the region. Rainfall should be much less widespread and less persistent than what is expected Friday and Saturday.

Northwest winds will then bring in a cooler air mass for early next week. Temperatures will return closer to seasonal averages, with daytime highs settling back into the 50s.