New England Weather Discussion

Current Temperature: 74.9°F (-1.0) 
High Temperature for the day: 86.9°F
Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches
Current Dewpoint: 69.0°F (0.1)
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last update: 6/21 - 5:49 PM

Claudette is in the Atlantic moving away from the USA. It looks like a cold front will drive south tonight and that will block Claudette from sending any rainfall our way. The NWS in Gray Maine has issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook for NH/ME. If you look at the Radar Page you will see numerous thunderstorms off to our northwest. Not clear if any of these make it here to Southern NH. It will be a close call.
Today was the first full day of Summer. Enjoy it!

Details:
Moderately unstable and well-sheared air mass in place across the forecast area as of this Monday afternoon. The atmosphere is ripe for severe thunderstorms. However, timing is an issue because the best forcing for ascent remains well to our west in the vicinity of the storms in western NY. This puts into question what our storm coverage will be over the next 8 hours or so. For the time being, strongest storms are likely to remain just north of our border with Canada as well as over upstate NY and Vermont. Cannot rule out isolated storms through 5PM but the vast majority of the forecast area will remain quiet.

As the evening begins, better lift will enter the forecast area from the west and should allow a few strong to severe storms to enter the watch area across northern and western NH. It`ll likely be even later for areas farther south and east. By then, heating will be done and the boundary layer should begin to stabilize somewhat. So if the convection currently to our west doesn`t organize greatly and have a well-balanced cold pool with it, the storms entering the CT River Valley south of the watch area will likely weaken and eventually dissipate as they potentially reach central NH. However, a few storms there could be severe upon entering the forecast area.

For southeastern NH and our Maine zones south of the mountains, the chances for thunder or much rain for that matter doesn`t look good. Storms should fall apart for the most part before entering these areas although a few rumbles will be possible prior to 1AM or so.
To summarize, the best chances for severe weather will be in the current severe thunderstorm watch area northeastward to the western ME mountains. The next best chance will be to the south of the watch area along the CT River. Damaging winds will be the main threat although heavy downpours and localized flooding will be possible if and where storms train across western zones. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front that should have moved just offshore around 7AM. The question remains how much anafrontal precipitation will occur during the day? The solutions continue to vary with the 7Am models leading the pack with a good dose of rainfall Tuesday afternoon. Skies clear out Tuesday night as high pressure moves in.

A cold front will be well offshore Wednesday morning with breezy northwest winds ushering in cooler and drier air. Downsloping winds will allow coastal areas to be the warm spot with highs into the mid 70s there to upper 60s across the north. With mostly sunny skies and dewpoints in the 40s it will be a nice late June day. High pressure crests over the region Wednesday night. Clear skies and light winds will maximize what radiational cooling we can achieve on one of the shortest nights of the year with lows dropping to near 40F in the north to near 50F across the south.

Surface high pressure will build to our southwest Wednesday with cooler and much drier air funneling into northern New England on northwest winds. High pressure will crest over the area Wednesday night before settling offshore through the end of the work week. This will bring fair weather, comfortable humidity levels and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with cooler conditions along the coast Thursday and Friday. Going into the weekend a long wave trough deepens to our west as heights rise along the west coast of North America. This will set up deep southwest flow allowing for temperatures and humidity to rise Saturday into Sunday. With the increasing heat and humidity will come the threat for showers and thunderstorms with the best chances for precipitation holding off until Sunday.

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Site News

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See how much rain we’ve received thus far in 2021.
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Take a look at Weather Graphics 1, 2, and 3 to the right.

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