Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
731 AM EDT Thursday, June 11, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Forecast remains on track at this time.

**Key Messages**

* Heat Advisories remain in effect for northern Connecticut and much of interior Massachusetts from noon today through 8 PM Friday.

* A few scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday.

* Above normal temperatures continue into early next week, but humidity will decrease. The weekend looks mostly dry, while uncertainty remains high regarding potential rain showers early next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Heat Advisories remain in effect for northern Connecticut and much of interior Massachusetts from noon today through 8 PM Friday**

Increasing heat and humidity will create a growing risk today and Friday as the warmest air mass of the season moves into southern New England.

A persistent southwest wind flow will transport very hot and humid air into the region. Meteorologists measure temperatures at about 2,500 feet above the ground using the 925 millibar level, and temperatures at that level are expected to reach around 81 degrees today and 86 degrees Friday. This supports surface temperatures climbing into the low to middle 90s.

Dewpoints, a measure of atmospheric moisture, were already in the lower 60s before sunrise and are expected to rise to around 70 degrees, especially across interior Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. When combined with air temperatures in the 90s, it will feel much hotter than the actual temperature.

Heat index values are expected to approach 100 degrees today and likely exceed 100 degrees Friday in parts of the Connecticut River Valley. Because of this, Heat Advisories remain in effect through 8 PM Friday.

Across Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, temperatures should generally remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. High humidity will still make it feel like the lower 90s in many locations away from the coast.

A backdoor cold front, which is a front that moves in from the northeast rather than the typical west to east direction, is expected to move into eastern Massachusetts on Friday. Winds coming off the ocean should provide some cooling relief along the immediate coastline, where temperatures may only reach the lower 80s with heat index values in the middle to upper 80s.

There is still some uncertainty regarding how far inland this front will travel. Current expectations suggest it will remain east of Worcester. Regardless, widespread moderate heat impacts are expected across the region, with pockets of major heat impacts possible in the Connecticut River Valley. Anyone spending extended time outdoors without adequate hydration or access to cooling will face an increased risk of heat-related illness.

**Key Message 2, A few scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday**

The combination of increasing heat, high humidity, and several weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere may trigger showers and thunderstorms later today and again on Friday.

Forecast confidence for severe weather has decreased somewhat, but western Connecticut remains the area of greatest concern this evening.

Colorado State University Machine Learning severe weather probabilities continue to indicate a 15 to 30 percent chance for severe wind potential. Atmospheric instability, measured by CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), could reach 1,500 to 2,200 joules per kilogram in western Connecticut. CAPE is a measure of how much fuel the atmosphere has available for thunderstorm development.

However, the highest instability values are expected to weaken as storms move eastward, potentially limiting storm intensity.

Forecast models also indicate relatively weak wind shear, which refers to changing wind speed and direction with height. Bulk shear values are expected to struggle to reach 20 knots, with the strongest values remaining over western and southern Connecticut.

Even with limited wind shear, any storms that form will be capable of tapping into the very unstable air mass. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat.

Friday appears similar, although severe wind probabilities increase to 30 to 45 percent in a narrow corridor across western Connecticut.

Forecast soundings, which are atmospheric profiles generated by weather models, suggest higher DCAPE values Friday evening. DCAPE, or Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy, measures the atmosphere's ability to support strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Higher values can increase the risk of damaging wind gusts reaching the ground.

There remains uncertainty regarding how widespread thunderstorm coverage will become Friday.

**Key Message 3, Above normal temperatures continue into early next week, but humidity will decrease. Weekend looking mostly dry, while uncertainty remains high regarding potential rain showers early next week**

Weak high pressure positioned between two frontal systems should dominate the weather pattern through much of the weekend.

This will allow dewpoints to fall and humidity levels to become noticeably more comfortable. While temperatures will remain above normal, heat index values should generally stay in the 80s, with only a few locations reaching the lower 90s.

Forecast confidence decreases early next week.

Current guidance suggests another frontal boundary may stall near the south coast of New England while a weak area of low pressure develops near New Jersey Monday night into Tuesday.

The atmospheric forcing, or mechanisms that help produce precipitation, appears weak at this time. However, scattered showers cannot be ruled out.

A shift of only about 20 miles farther south in the storm track could result in a largely dry forecast for southern New England.

Additional forecast adjustments are likely as newer data becomes available.