Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, Corrected**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**711 AM EDT Friday, June 26, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No major changes were made to the forecast. Forecasters updated the latest surface observations and adjusted the aviation forecast for the 8 AM EDT terminal forecasts.

**Key Messages**

1. Rain will spread from west to east through the morning. After a break in precipitation, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this afternoon and early evening, with some storms possibly becoming strong to severe.

2. Temperatures will trend upward this weekend with increasing heat and humidity building toward the middle of next week. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms on most days, mainly during the afternoon, but no one day currently looks like a washout.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

A low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes will push a warm front northward across the region this morning, followed later by a cold front. As the warm front moves through, widespread rain will spread from west to east across New Hampshire and western Maine.

Some locations could experience locally heavy rainfall, especially in higher terrain where the landscape enhances rainfall. However, because the weather system is moving steadily, widespread flooding is not expected. Most areas should receive between one quarter inch and three quarters of an inch of precipitation, while isolated locations could receive between one and two inches. The latest High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) suggests the highest rainfall amounts are most likely in the Connecticut River Valley and southwestern New Hampshire.

The morning rain will gradually weaken later this morning as the strongest lift in the atmosphere moves away. Clouds, light showers, and areas of mist may linger into early afternoon, but breaks of sunshine are expected across portions of New Hampshire and western Maine.

The amount of afternoon sunshine will play a major role in determining how strong thunderstorms become. Forecast guidance indicates enough atmospheric instability could develop to support thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather. The atmosphere is also expected to have favorable wind shear, meaning winds change speed and direction with height, allowing storms to organize and strengthen.

Storms will likely begin as individual cells before merging into clusters rather quickly. Even if storms become less organized, conditions will still support isolated severe thunderstorms. The primary threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail. There is also a low but possible risk of a brief tornado near the southern New Hampshire and southwestern Maine border, where lower level winds may become more favorable for rotation. There remains uncertainty regarding how far east the strongest storms will extend as cooler marine air stabilizes areas closer to the coast near sunset. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the evening, leading to a mostly dry overnight period.

Afternoon high temperatures today will range from the middle to upper 60s across the North Country, the lower to middle 70s across most other areas, and the upper 70s to lower 80s across southern New Hampshire where more sunshine is expected. Overnight low temperatures will mainly fall into the 50s.

**Key Message 2 Description**

A broad upper level storm system will remain over northern New England through Saturday and Sunday before an area of high pressure aloft begins building eastward from the Ohio Valley. This pattern will keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday.

Some forecast models continue to indicate enough instability and wind shear for a few strong to severe storms during both afternoons, although Colorado State University machine learning guidance currently does not indicate a significant severe weather signal. High temperatures will generally reach the upper 70s on Saturday and climb into the 80s on Sunday.

By early next week, northwest winds higher in the atmosphere will help high pressure build across the Northeast, bringing a mainly dry day with temperatures well into the 80s.

Long range forecast models continue to indicate that the ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Ohio Valley, allowing heat and humidity to build. It remains uncertain just how much of that heat will reach northern New England since the center of the ridge is expected to remain west of the region.

Forecast guidance consistently suggests that clusters of thunderstorms developing along the northern edge of the ridge could move into New England during the middle of next week, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Overall, forecast ensembles continue to favor increasing heat and humidity with the potential for elevated heat risk. High temperatures could climb into the 90s while dew points approach 70 degrees, resulting in increasingly uncomfortable conditions.