Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA**

**726 AM EDT Sunday July 26 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Aviation discussion updated.

**Key Messages**

* Mainly dry conditions expected today. Increased risk for rip currents today, mainly for Cape Cod and Nantucket.

* Periodic chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms early to mid week next week, potentially lingering into Thursday. Increasing potential for heavy rain late Tuesday through Wednesday with at least localized flash flooding possible.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Mainly dry conditions expected today. Increased risk for rip currents today, mainly for Cape Cod and Nantucket.**

Mainly dry conditions are expected today as weak high pressure remains over the region. Higher in the atmosphere, a mid level trough, an elongated area of lower pressure that often promotes cooler and more unsettled weather, will move into southern New England while a low pressure system remains well offshore.

The offshore storm will have only a limited impact, mainly sending a band of moisture across southeastern Massachusetts. An easterly wind will help maintain that moisture. Forecast soundings, which are computer generated profiles of the atmosphere, show a shallow layer of moisture near the ground with much drier air above it. This setup favors low clouds and possibly areas of patchy drizzle, mainly across Nantucket and the outer portions of Cape Cod.

Elsewhere, dry weather will dominate with a northeasterly breeze along the eastern coastline. High temperatures will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, while eastern coastal communities will remain in the middle to upper 70s. Nantucket could stay in the lower 70s if cloud cover remains persistent through the day.

A prolonged easterly wind will also create an increased risk for dangerous rip currents. The highest risk will be along the east facing beaches of Cape Cod and Nantucket, although an elevated risk also exists for south coastal beaches and other east facing beaches. Nantucket has been added to the current Rip Current Statement.

**Key Message 2, Periodic chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms early to mid week next week, potentially lingering into Thursday. Increasing potential for heavy rain late Tuesday through Wednesday with at least localized flash flooding possible.**

A mid level trough will remain over the region for much of the upcoming week. Several smaller disturbances, known as shortwaves, will move through the larger weather pattern and bring periodic opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Warm air advection, the movement of warmer air into the region, along with increasing moisture, will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 80s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop late Monday afternoon and evening, although forecast models still disagree on how widespread they will become. Current precipitation chances remain below 40 percent, with western and central southern New England having the greatest potential.

Forecast guidance continues to show a deepening trough during Tuesday and Wednesday along with moisture levels increasing to about 120 to 170 percent of normal. Most forecast models, including both individual model runs and ensemble forecasts that combine many model simulations, now support the development of a stronger low pressure system. In many scenarios, this storm would be unusually strong for late July.

If this stronger storm develops, it would create a favorable setup for heavy rainfall. The European forecast model, known as the ECMWF, continues to show the strongest signal for widespread heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Many of its solutions track the storm near Long Island and then toward eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod while also moving it more slowly.

Forecast soundings indicate an atmosphere that is highly efficient at producing heavy rainfall. The ECMWF ensemble guidance shows a 40 to 75 percent chance of at least 1 inch of precipitation from late Tuesday into Wednesday, along with a 10 to 40 percent chance of more than 2 inches across much of southern New England. Recent individual model runs have also consistently shown areas receiving more than 2 inches of precipitation during this period.

Light steering winds would allow thunderstorms to move slowly, increasing the likelihood of prolonged heavy rainfall. In addition, repeated thunderstorms moving over the same locations, a process known as training, would increase the potential for localized flash flooding. Current forecasts suggest flooding could become more scattered rather than being limited to only one or two isolated locations.

The Canadian and GFS forecast models have recently become more supportive of heavier rainfall, although their ensemble guidance still includes weaker storm scenarios that would produce lower rainfall totals. Even in those solutions, localized heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible, although the impacts would be more isolated.

While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact storm track and rainfall amounts, confidence continues to increase that southern New England will receive widespread precipitation from late Tuesday through Wednesday, with localized heavy downpours and flash flooding possible. Depending on the eventual track of the storm, showers could continue into Thursday.

Temperatures through the week will remain seasonably cool to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.