Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME 606 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

What has Changed
Little change to the going forecast this Saturday morning. A couple of nice days weatherwise expected this weekend with dry weather.

Key Messages

1. Fair weather is expected through Sunday as high pressure moves overhead and settles across the region.
2. Hot and humid conditions return by Tuesday, accompanied by a chance for severe weather. Above average temperatures likely continue the rest of the week.

Discussion

Key Message 1 Description

With the passage of a weakening cold front early this morning, broad and strong high pressure takes up residence across the Great Lakes and the Northeast through the weekend. The 1020 to 1023 millibar barometric pressure reading is strong, but won't be setting climatological records for this time of year.

The presence of the high pressure will bring fair conditions to the region with plenty of sun and daytime cumulus clouds. Despite the mixed layer of the atmosphere deepening to around 750 millibars, there is little momentum to mix winds to the surface, so days should feature a gentle breeze. This will likely result in a daily sea breeze in the early afternoon for points along the coast.

Forecast highs will run at or within a couple degrees of normal for the weekend, mainly in the low to mid 80s degrees. The lack of moisture moving into the region will provide dry low levels of the atmosphere and large daytime differences between the air temperature and the dewpoint. Thus, while it will be warm, higher humidity values should hold off until early next week.

Overnight lows in the 50s degrees to around 60 degrees will bring overnight relief, with the chance some areas dip into the upper 40s degrees. The lack of much cloud cover and light winds should bring these lower temperatures from the White Mountains to parts of the foothills.

Key Message 2 Description

The week will start with an unusually strong 500 millibar upper level ridge of high pressure over the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. By midweek, an atmospheric trough originating near Hudson Bay will strengthen while dropping south towards Quebec. This places New England on the northeast edge of the ridge. The sharp contrast between the trough and ridge is also likely to induce a high speed jet streak wind current and a surface trough development by Tuesday or Wednesday. The orientation of these features suggests a period of northwest wind flow aloft.

The first half of the week is looking quite hot, with Tuesday coming into focus as the day of greatest heat impact. There are signs of an unusually hot airmass, as the North American Ensemble Forecast System situational awareness table is indicating that temperatures at both the 700 millibar and 850 millibar atmospheric levels will be near the 99th percentile of climatological history. This translates to temperatures around 5000 feet aloft of 68 to 73 degrees, which is shown on both standard single model forecasts and ensemble model guidance.

Right now the forecast is for highs in the upper 80s degrees to mid 90s degrees from Monday through Wednesday, but there is certainly the potential for even hotter, possibly near record breaking temperatures Tuesday if the atmosphere can mix deeply with such an unusually warm column of air. A southwest wind should prevent cooler onshore ocean air from moving inland outside of the Midcoast region. The one saving grace will be more tolerable dewpoint temperatures, which are likely to be in the 60s degrees rather than the muggy 70s degrees based on current guidance.

The other headline for early next week will be a severe thunderstorm risk as the accompanying atmospheric trough swings through our area, which right now is timed to be late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This timing is still subject to change given we are four days out from the event.

The feature of particular interest for this setup is a potential elevated mixed layer, which is a layer of warm, dry air aloft that can trap instability until it breaks out into severe storms. This involves steep mid level lapse rates, meaning temperatures drop off very rapidly with height at a rate of 7 to 8 degrees per kilometer.

In addition, forecast guidance is in agreement on rather robust wind fields and wind shear, which is the changing of wind speed and direction with height, both across the lower 1 kilometer and the deeper 6 kilometer levels of the atmosphere. Forecasters will have to see how the timing comes together, but the ingredients are certainly on the table for a potential higher end severe weather event Tuesday evening and night. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Day 5 15 percent severe weather risk for the majority of New Hampshire and Maine, generally north of a Concord, Portland, and Rockland line.

Guidance is in agreement on the cold front clearing south of our region by Wednesday morning. This brings a sharp drop in dewpoint temperatures into the 40s and 50s degrees through the second half of the week. However, with a still warm airmass aloft and some downslope northwest winds warming the air as it descends the mountains, temperatures still look above average, possibly near 90 degrees in the traditionally warmer spots.