Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**

National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
Issued 435 AM EDT Saturday, May 30, 2026

**What Has Changed**

Upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and Nantucket. Expanded the Wind Advisory to include all of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

**Key Messages**

* Low pressure system brings rain and strong to damaging winds to portions of southern New England today.

* Cooler than normal temperatures early next week with hit or miss shower and thunderstorm chances during the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday.

* Monitoring possible offshore low development around midweek, which could pass far enough south to allow for warming temperatures, or lead to a continuation of cooler than normal temperatures and possible rainfall with a closer pass.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Low Pressure System Brings Rain And Strong To Damaging Winds To Portions Of Southern New England Today**

The forecast remains on track for a deep upper level trough, an elongated area of low pressure and unusually cold air aloft, along with a strong surface low pressure system to impact the region today. While widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected, the primary concern remains strong and potentially damaging winds.

Forecast guidance continues to show a significant wind threat. As the strengthening low pressure system moves offshore, a low level jet (LLJ), a ribbon of very strong winds a few thousand feet above the ground, will sweep across eastern portions of southern New England. Winds in this layer are forecast to reach 45 to 60 knots.

Forecast soundings, which are atmospheric profiles used to evaluate temperature, moisture, and wind structure, indicate these stronger winds will be located relatively close to the ground. Steep lapse rates, meaning temperatures decrease rapidly with height, will help transfer some of these stronger winds to the surface through vertical mixing.

Most forecast models support widespread wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph inland. Along the coast, gusts of 45 to 55 mph appear likely, especially as the strongest part of the low level jet passes overhead. Some higher-end guidance even suggests a small chance for isolated gusts around 60 mph across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Winds will increase from north to south through the morning, becoming strongest across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands during the afternoon. Current Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings remain on track.

As the storm moves offshore, another round of precipitation will spread across the region today. Following a brief lull during the early morning hours, showers will redevelop after approximately 6 AM EDT and spread southward. Rain may not reach Cape Cod until early afternoon.

A few brief downpours and isolated thunderstorms are possible due to limited atmospheric instability. Rainfall will gradually taper off from west to east during the afternoon and evening as the storm departs. Rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.20 inches to 1.20 inches, with the highest amounts most likely across northeastern Massachusetts.

At the same time, this storm is drawing an unusually cold air mass into the region. Afternoon temperatures will likely remain stuck in the upper 40s to lower 50s, exceptionally cool for late May.

Some higher elevation locations, especially near the northern Massachusetts border, could see a few snowflakes mix with the rain this morning. Recent forecast guidance has reduced this possibility somewhat, but it remains possible if heavier precipitation rates develop and allow for dynamic cooling, a process where falling precipitation helps cool the atmosphere. No travel impacts are expected.

**Key Message 2, Cooler Than Normal Temperatures Early Next Week With Hit Or Miss Shower And Thunderstorm Chances Monday And Tuesday**

Forecast ensembles continue to indicate broad upper level troughing will dominate the weather pattern across southern New England through much of next week. This pattern is expected to evolve slowly, keeping temperatures below average and maintaining periodic shower chances.

One upper level low pressure system is expected to settle into the region Sunday night and Monday before gradually moving offshore Tuesday.

As a result, daytime heating combined with the cold air aloft may trigger scattered showers and a few brief thunderstorms during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday. This type of pattern often produces localized showers, meaning many areas will experience dry periods between showers.

Temperatures will remain somewhat cooler than early June averages, generally ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s with comfortable humidity levels. Normal highs for this time of year are generally in the middle to upper 70s.

**Key Message 3, Monitoring Possible Offshore Low Development Around Midweek**

Forecast uncertainty increases during the middle and latter portions of next week.

Forecast models continue to monitor a disturbance rotating southward from the Canadian Maritimes. This feature may eventually develop into a closed upper level circulation and an associated offshore surface low pressure system south of New England.

The exact track and strength of this system remain uncertain. If the low remains well offshore, southern New England could experience drier weather along with a noticeable warming trend, particularly across inland areas. This outcome would allow upper level ridging, an area of higher pressure aloft, to build into the region.

However, if the low tracks closer to New England, cooler than normal temperatures and additional periods of light rainfall could persist through the middle of next week.

For now, forecasters are making only minor adjustments while awaiting clearer trends in future model guidance.