Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

205 AM EST Monday, November 9, 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy and unsettled start to this workweek as multiple weak disturbances pass by.
- Cloudy through midweek with more seasonable temperatures.
- Unsettled weather may return late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cloudy and unsettled start to this workweek as multiple weak disturbances pass by.

Westerly to northwesterly winds will remain in place as another upper-level trough moves out of the region later tonight. An upper-level trough is an area of lower atmospheric pressure that often helps bring cooler air and unsettled weather. Cooler temperatures in the atmosphere, combined with another smaller disturbance moving through the middle levels of the atmosphere, could produce isolated to scattered light showers today. The best chance for showers will be from late morning into the afternoon, with activity gradually diminishing toward sunset. Western Massachusetts, particularly the higher elevations, has the greatest chance of seeing showers.

Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to continue into Tuesday as colder air moves into southern New England. Generally drier weather should prevail tonight and Tuesday, with temperatures settling closer to normal for this time of year.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cloudy through midweek with more seasonable temperatures.

Another upper-level trough will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. An associated area of low pressure will pass to our northeast, maintaining the west to northwest winds expected at the beginning of the week.

Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground will remain relatively cool through Wednesday. Forecast models show temperatures at approximately 5,000 feet returning to just below freezing across much of the region before moderating slightly on Thursday ahead of another approaching storm system.

Temperatures closer to the ground will also remain seasonable. These conditions should support daytime highs mainly in the 50s, with overnight lows generally in the 30s and 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather may return late this week.

Forecast models continue to show the possibility of another developing low-pressure system during the second half of this week. This system may develop just south of New England, along or just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The larger weather pattern responsible for this potential storm begins taking shape early in the week. A trough, or elongated area of lower pressure, is expected to develop near the Rocky Mountains Tuesday night or Wednesday and gradually move eastward. At the same time, higher pressure will build over the western United States and the Rockies. The developing weather systems may eventually combine with additional energy moving southeast from the Canadian Prairies, allowing a stronger storm system to develop over the Ohio Valley.

This developing storm could then produce an area of low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast before moving northeast toward New England. While this general scenario is becoming more widely supported by forecast models, there is still considerable uncertainty about the eventual track and strength of the storm.

The latest overnight forecast guidance continues to show two somewhat different possibilities for southern New England.

The American GFS and its GEFS ensemble guidance favor a warmer and wetter scenario, with the storm tracking more directly across the region. In this situation, colder air would not arrive until sometime Saturday morning, meaning most precipitation would likely fall as rain. However, a changeover to heavy, wet snow could occur along the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and across the higher elevations of the Worcester Hills. At this time, even if this scenario develops, significant impacts are not expected.

Other forecast guidance, including the European ECMWF and Canadian models, suggests that colder air could arrive earlier. These models also place the storm track farther offshore, closer to the benchmark located near 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude, which is southeast of New England. This track would likely keep much of the region drier.

The differences between these forecast solutions are important because even relatively small changes in the storm track and the timing of colder air could significantly affect precipitation amounts and whether precipitation falls as rain or snow.

There is still considerable spread among the forecast models, so confidence in the details remains low. Additional information should become available as the developing weather pattern takes shape over the next several days.

After this potential storm system moves away, colder and breezier conditions are expected to return. The upper-level weather pattern should favor continued cloudy skies and cooler temperatures, with temperatures several thousand feet above the ground potentially falling to around 25 degrees. Breezy northwest winds are also expected as a more northerly flow becomes established across southern New England.