




Heat Advisories are active in SE NH, and MA South Today, while Excessive Heat Warnings remain active in NYC Area - Find all of the details here.
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Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

A 30 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

A 40 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79.

A 30 percent chance of showers after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.














Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 3pm and 5pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 98. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Calm wind.

Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind.

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Calm wind.
Notes from Rich:
What is the 'Regular’ Schedule.
Weekdays: Morning updates each day before 8AM, Evening Updates before 7PM.
On Weekends: Perhaps a bit later. I like to sleep in.
Every Thursday morning I post the daily forecast through the weekend.
Have a GREAT Holiday!
The excessive heat advisories have been pushed south to CT and NYC area. Here in New England we have heat advisories active from the NH line to RI, but none in eastern NY state, or north of Manchester NH. Still, it will be hot and humid today with a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Tonight looks quiet for fireworks, with just cloudy skies. Not as hot Sunday with showers moving in to start the new week.
Today will still be hot, but noticeably less oppressive than the past couple of days as humidity gradually eases. Southeastern New Hampshire will remain the hottest area, where the heat index may approach 95 degrees and a Heat Advisory is in effect. A cold front could trigger a few strong afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across western and southern New Hampshire. Early next week looks cooler and more comfortable, although there is still some uncertainty regarding rainfall from late Monday through Tuesday night. Drier weather is expected by the middle of the week before heat and humidity may begin returning late in the week.
Check out the enhanced "Todays Weather at a Glance" section above.
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On this day in history:
On this day in 1776, the Continental Congress formally adopted the Declaration of Independence, announcing the American colonies' separation from Great Britain and giving birth to a new nation.

Summary:
Today will still be hot, but noticeably less oppressive than the past couple of days as humidity gradually eases. Southeastern New Hampshire will remain the hottest area, where the heat index may approach 95 degrees and a Heat Advisory is in effect. A cold front could trigger a few strong afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across western and southern New Hampshire. Early next week looks cooler and more comfortable, although there is still some uncertainty regarding rainfall from late Monday through Tuesday night. Drier weather is expected by the middle of the week before heat and humidity may begin returning late in the week.
Key Messages:
- Not quite as hot and humid today. There is a chance for a few strong storms this afternoon in western and southern New Hampshire.
- Cooler and pleasant temperatures for much of next week, but likely warming up by the end of the week. Chances for rain Monday through Tuesday night.
What has changed since the last Forecast Update?
No significant changes to the forecast were needed.
What this means for you:
Expect another warm summer day, but with lower humidity for many locations compared to recent days. If you are in southeastern New Hampshire, continue to take precautions against the heat. Keep an eye on the sky this afternoon if you are in western or southern New Hampshire, where a few thunderstorms could become strong. Early next week will feel much more comfortable, although periods of light rain remain possible from late Monday through Tuesday night. Warmer and more humid weather could return toward the end of next week.
**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**641 AM EDT Saturday, July 4, 2026**
**What Has Changed**
Minor update to the Aviation section for the 12Z TAFs (Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, routine aviation weather forecasts).
**Key Messages**
1. Not quite as hot and humid today. There is a chance for a few strong storms this afternoon in western and southern New Hampshire.
2. Cooler and pleasant temperatures for much of next week, but likely warming up by the end of the week. Chances for rain Monday through Tuesday night.
**Discussion**
**Key Message 1 Description**
Very warm to hot weather continues today, but it will not be as uncomfortable as the last couple of days because the hottest and most humid air has shifted south of the forecast area. Even so, southeastern New Hampshire is expected to see heat index values around 95 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for that area. Elsewhere, heat index values should remain below 95 degrees as gusty northwest winds help mix drier air into the lower atmosphere, reducing humidity.
A cold front moving through the region this afternoon may provide the focus for a few thunderstorms. The latest CAMs (Convection Allowing Models, short range weather models designed to predict thunderstorms) continue to show fewer storms than earlier forecasts, with the greatest chance for one or two strong storms across western and southern New Hampshire.
**Key Message 2 Description**
A weak area of low pressure will move along the cold front as it settles south into the Mid Atlantic by the beginning of next week. Forecast guidance continues to show two possible scenarios for precipitation. One solution keeps Canadian high pressure strong enough to push most of the rain south of the region, resulting in mostly clouds and only light precipitation across southern New England. The other solution brings the rain farther north, affecting more of the forecast area. Even if the wetter scenario develops, precipitation is still expected to remain light overall, with the heaviest amounts staying south of the region. The period from late Monday through Tuesday evening will be the time to watch for unsettled weather.
Temperatures early next week will depend somewhat on how this system develops, but conditions are expected to be noticeably cooler than during the recent heat wave. For comparison, temperatures around 5,000 feet above the ground, known as 850 millibar temperatures, were near 68 degrees during last weeks heat wave. By early next week, those temperatures are expected to fall to around 54 degrees, supporting much cooler conditions at the surface.
High pressure is expected to return by the middle of next week, bringing a warmer and drier pattern. By late next week, the high may move offshore, allowing hotter and more humid air to return on southwest winds. At the same time, a trough of lower pressure may move southeast out of Canada, bringing another chance for thunderstorms toward the end of next week.
Summary:
Another hot and humid day is expected across southern New England, but it will not be quite as intense as the past two days. A few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible, although many locations will remain dry. The greatest risk for severe storms is expected southwest of the region, with only a low chance that a few storms become strong in southwest Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. Much cooler weather arrives for the first half of next week, and there is increasing potential for a widespread soaking rainfall from late Sunday through Tuesday, although confidence in rainfall amounts remains low.
Key Messages:
- Hot and humid today with a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, but not a washout. The main severe weather and damaging wind threat remains southwest of southern New England, with only a low risk locally, mainly across southwest Massachusetts and northern Connecticut.
- Much cooler temperatures are expected during the first half of next week, especially if the potential for a soaking heavy rainfall develops from late Sunday through Tuesday.
What has changed since the last Forecast Update?
The Extreme Heat Warning has been replaced with a Heat Advisory for southern New England through 8:00 PM EDT this evening.
What this means for you
Heat will continue to be a concern today, especially for anyone spending time outdoors during Independence Day activities. Drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and limit strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Keep an eye on the sky this afternoon and evening, particularly across western and southwestern portions of southern New England, where a few thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts and brief heavy rain. Looking ahead, much more comfortable temperatures are expected next week, but there is still uncertainty regarding how much rain could fall between late Sunday and Tuesday.
**Area Forecast Discussion**
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
**732 AM EDT Saturday, July 4, 2026**
**What Has Changed**
The Extreme Heat Warning has been replaced with a Heat Advisory for southern New England through 8:00 PM EDT this evening.
**Key Messages**
* Hot and humid today with a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, but not a washout. The main severe weather and damaging wind threat remains southwest of southern New England, with only a low risk locally, mainly across southwest Massachusetts and northern Connecticut.
* Much cooler temperatures are expected for the first half of next week, especially if the potential for a soaking heavy rainfall develops from late Sunday through Tuesday.
**Discussion**
**Key Message 1, Hot and humid today with a few showers and thunderstorms, but not a washout**
One more hot and humid day is expected across southern New England today. An upper level ridge, an area of high pressure in the atmosphere that has been responsible for the recent heat, is beginning to weaken. As that happens, temperatures in the middle levels of the atmosphere will cool somewhat. Even so, afternoon high temperatures are still expected to reach the middle 90s in many locations.
Heat index values, which combine air temperature and humidity to show how hot it will actually feel, are expected to range from 95 to 102 degrees. While these values are lower than those of the past two days, this will still be the fourth straight day of significant heat and humidity. Because conditions are expected to be slightly less extreme, the Extreme Heat Warning has been replaced with a Heat Advisory, but the overall message remains the same, continue to take precautions against the heat.
Forecasters are also watching the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Enough instability, unstable air that helps thunderstorms develop, is expected to be present. However, the greatest instability and the steepest lapse rates, areas where temperatures decrease rapidly with height and help storms strengthen, are forecast to remain southwest of southern New England.
High resolution forecast models, known as CAMs (Convective Allowing Models), continue to indicate that the strongest thunderstorms are most likely to remain southwest of the region. However, with moderate instability and effective wind shear of 30 to 40 knots, a measure of how winds change with height and help organize thunderstorms, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. The greatest local risk remains across southwest Massachusetts and northern Connecticut, where storms developing farther southwest could brush the area.
Overall, expect a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, but many locations will remain dry. If any storm becomes severe, the primary threats would be damaging straight line wind gusts and brief torrential rainfall.
**Key Message 2, Much cooler weather next week with the potential for soaking rainfall**
Forecast guidance remains in good agreement that the upper level ridge will continue to weaken, allowing much cooler air to move into southern New England during the first half of next week.
The biggest uncertainty involves rainfall between late Sunday and Tuesday. There is growing potential for a widespread soaking rainfall, but confidence in the exact location and amounts remains limited.
The expected weather pattern features high pressure over eastern Canada and low pressure passing south of New England. This could produce an overrunning pattern, where warm, moisture rich air moves over a cooler layer of air near the ground, leading to an extended period of rain with embedded thunderstorms.
Forecast ensembles, which are multiple model simulations used to estimate a range of possible outcomes, continue to show a wide spread in possible rainfall totals. Some solutions produce only limited precipitation, while others generate several inches of rainfall.
Forecasting widespread summer rainfall is challenging because temperature contrasts in the atmosphere are relatively weak and thunderstorms can strongly influence where the heaviest rain develops. Atmospheric moisture levels are expected to be quite high, with precipitable water values between 1.5 and more than 2 inches. Precipitable water is a measure of the total amount of moisture available in the atmosphere.
If enough upward motion develops over southern New England, heavy rainfall could occur. Whether those ingredients come together remains uncertain, and forecasters will continue to monitor the situation closely.

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