Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 248 PM EDT Wednesday October 7, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for many coastal waters tonight into Thursday.

**Key Messages**

1. Temperatures continue to moderate Thursday, with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s in many locations. Mainly dry weather continues, with a few brief spot showers possible with a cold front.

2. Dry weather prevails Friday through early Sunday, with another frosty start possible Saturday. Rain is increasingly likely late Sunday into Columbus Day, though uncertainty remains with the timing of the onset and rainfall amounts.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Thursday**

High pressure will continue to shift east of the region tonight as a cold front approaches from the west on Thursday. A modest southwest low-level jet, or LLJ, which is a band of stronger winds several thousand feet above the ground, should keep most locations from becoming completely calm overnight. This will result in a much milder night than Wednesday night. Overnight lows should only drop into the middle 40s to lower 50s in most locations, with middle 50s in the Boston urban heat island.

A moisture-starved cold front and associated pre-frontal trough will approach the area from the west near daybreak Thursday. This should bring a period of mid-level cloudiness and a few brief passing showers, mainly Thursday morning. Any showers should be very short-lived at any given location, and most of the day should remain dry.

Partial sunshine and temperatures around 57 degrees several thousand feet above the ground should result in highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s across much of the region. There is also a low risk for a few additional spot showers ahead of the cold front, but the majority of the day should remain dry. A west-southwest breeze will develop, but overall Thursday should be a very pleasant day.

Winds will diminish Thursday night as skies become clear. This will allow for good radiational cooling, meaning temperatures can fall quickly under clear skies and light winds. Lows should mainly be in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible in the normally coolest outlying locations.

**Key Message 2, Friday Through Columbus Day**

The extended forecast remains on track with no major changes. Strong high pressure of more than 1030 millibars will build over the Northeast Friday and Saturday, supporting sunny and dry conditions.

Highs Friday will be seasonably cool behind the cold front, mainly in the lower to middle 60s. Warmer air will begin moving into the atmosphere Saturday, supporting highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Another frosty start is possible Saturday, especially in typically colder locations where light or calm winds will allow for effective radiational cooling. The National Blend of Models, or NBM, does not capture this cooling particularly well, so forecasters have also incorporated MOS, or Model Output Statistics, which uses statistical guidance to improve temperature forecasts. This results in lows in the middle 30s across colder locations, while the urban core remains in the middle to upper 40s.

Confidence is high in dry weather Friday through early Sunday because weather forecast ensembles, which combine many model forecasts to assess the range of possible outcomes, strongly agree that high pressure will dominate the Northeast.

Confidence decreases after early Sunday regarding the timing and amount of rainfall. However, it is becoming increasingly likely that rain will arrive sometime late Sunday and continue into Columbus Day.

High pressure will shift east Sunday as moisture left over from Isaias begins approaching southern New England. Isaias, currently over the southwest Gulf, is expected to make landfall Friday night along the Gulf Coast. Forecast guidance continues to show a fairly wide window for the onset of rain, ranging from late Sunday morning to after sunset. However, confidence is moderate to high that rain will occur Sunday night into Monday.

There are signs that this could become a soaking rainfall, although confidence in the exact amounts remains lower. Precipitable water, or PWAT, which measures the total amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, is expected to reach 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. DESI, or Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios for IDSS, is an ensemble-based forecasting system that helps show the range and probabilities of possible weather outcomes. DESI probabilities for receiving at least 0.50 inches of rain from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday range from around 45 percent across northern Massachusetts to 60 to 70 percent along coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Probabilities for receiving 2 or more inches remain low, around 10 to 15 percent, and are mainly confined to Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Forecast confidence becomes quite low by Tuesday, although the overall pattern favors continued unsettled weather as a cold front potentially approaches from the west. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to temperatures, with highs generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees Sunday through Tuesday and overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s.