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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
630 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
MEZ012>014-018>028-033-NHZ004-006-008>010-012>015-121230- Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York- Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo- Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox- Coastal Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll- Southern Carroll-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough- Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham- Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Jefferson, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, Lincolnville, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough, Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare
630 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...Areas of locally dense fog through the morning commute...
Areas of fog have expanded across the coastal plain of Maine and portions of southeastern New Hampshire with visibility dropping to 1/2 to 1/4 mile. This fog will likely persist for the next two hours impacting the morning commute. Motorists should use caution and be prepared for rapid reductions in visibility.














A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 40 by 5pm. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

A chance of rain and sleet before noon, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet between noon and 1pm, then a chance of snow after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 36 by 5pm. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 21. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Increasing clouds, with a high near 43. Light west wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

A 40 percent chance of snow after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph.

A 20 percent chance of snow after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 38. Light west wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South wind around 5 mph.

Partly sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Partly sunny, with a high near 40. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Partly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.

A chance of snow before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then rain likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

A 30 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

A chance of snow before 11pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Notes from Rich:
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Weekdays: Morning updates each day before 8AM, Evening Updates before 7PM.
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Every Thursday morning I post the daily forecast through the weekend.
Some dense fog to deal with this morning but that will dissipate before noon. The warmest part of the day is this morning with temps in the mid 50s here in Peterborough, NH and upper 30s in Manchester. The rain and snow showers will taper off by later this afternoon with some clearing overnight. Colder temps move in behind this front.
A sunny start to Friday but another front arrives by the afternoon with light snow into Friday night, ending late.
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On this day in history:
On this day in 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt delivered the first of what became known as his "fireside chats," addressing the American people via radio broadcast directly from the White House.

Summary:
Mild conditions and rain will persist throughout the day as a cold front moves through the region. This front is currently clearing out areas of dense fog that have impacted the morning commute. As we move into Friday and Saturday, a shift to colder air will bring light snow accumulations, particularly for northern areas and the higher terrain. Looking ahead to early next week, a stronger storm system is expected to arrive, likely bringing a period of heavier rain and gusty winds.
Key Messages:
- Mild weather and rain continue through today.
- Light snow is expected to move across the area Friday afternoon into the overnight.
- Low pressure brings a round of light snow to most of the area Friday night into Saturday.
- A stronger low pressure system looks increasingly likely to bring a period of rain and gusty winds early next week.
What has changed since the last Forecast Update?
Have issued a Special Weather Statement for areas of locally dense fog across the coastal plain of Maine and portions of eastern and southern New Hampshire. Visibility restrictions of 1/2 to 1/4 mile are being reported in areas within the Special Weather Statement and will bring slow travel through the morning commute. Fog will dissipate with the passage of a cold front from west to east through morning.
What this means for you:
If you are driving this morning, watch for rapidly changing visibility due to fog, though conditions will improve by midday. Expect a damp day today with periods of rain, but no widespread flooding is anticipated despite the ongoing snowmelt. For those with Friday evening or Saturday travel plans, be prepared for slippery roads as rain transitions to snow, especially in the northern mountains and toward the Canadian border. Another round of wind and rain early next week may cause river levels to rise, so those in flood-prone areas should stay tuned for updates.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
647 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Synopsis
Mild weather and rain continue through today. Light snow is expected to move across the area Friday afternoon into the overnight. Low pressure brings a round of light snow to most of the area Friday night into Saturday. A stronger low pressure system looks increasingly likely to bring a period of rain and gusty winds early next week.
What has Changed
Have issued a Special Weather Statement for areas of locally dense fog across the coastal plain of Maine and portions of eastern and southern New Hampshire. Visibility restrictions of 1/2 to 1/4 mile are being reported in areas within the Special Weather Statement and will bring slow travel through the morning commute. Fog will dissipate with the passage of a cold front from west to east through morning.
Key Messages
- Mild weather and rain continue through today.
- Light snow is expected to move across the area Friday afternoon into the overnight.
- Low pressure brings a round of light snow to most of the area Friday night into Saturday.
- A stronger low pressure system looks increasingly likely to bring a period of rain and gusty winds early next week.
Discussion
Key Message 1 Description
Cold air dam, which is a layer of cold air trapped near the surface by mountains, is slowly giving way and temperatures are expected to continue to gradually rise through the morning. The rise will be most pronounced as the frontal boundary arrives and helps to mix out the inversion, a layer where air temperature increases with height. In the meantime low clouds and areas of fog will be present through morning as the warmer air moves over the remnant snow cover. Also will be looking at more widespread rain showers moving into the forecast area from the southwest. I do think thunderstorms will miss us to the south, but some elevated convection, or upward moving air that can cause heavy rain, and heavier downpours are possible.
Overall the relatively high capacity for storage in the local river systems means that the forecast precipitation through the afternoon should be manageable even with snow melt added to the mix. River ice continues to get flushed out as well.
Despite a few break up jams occurring, the water levels are currently at or below action stage. We will continue to monitor river levels, but at this time do not anticipate a widespread flooding threat. Rain showers may linger along the coast today as the front takes its time to clear, but once colder air begins to work in from the northwest winds could get gusty through the late evening.
Key Message 2 Description
A robust low pressure will move into the Great Lakes and send a warm front into New England Friday. A broad area of warm advection, which is the transport of warm air into a region, will lift through the region and provide a period of ascent from Friday afternoon into the late evening hours.
Temperatures should be cold enough for this to fall largely as snow. Current forecasts are a little moisture starved and snowfall brief and light. Some minor accumulations are possible for much of the forecast area, but farther north into the upper Kennebec River Valley a longer period of saturation could allow for 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
Key Message 3 Description
Low pressure tracks eastward into New England Friday night and Saturday. The best forcing, or the atmospheric lift needed to create precipitation, with the system will be north of the warm front, across northern areas and the higher terrain. Up here, a few inches of snow are possible, with the best chance for the highest amounts closer to the Canadian border. Further south, a brief burst of snow followed by some scattered snow showers looks more likely, but accumulations would remain limited.
The leading edge of the snow may reach into New Hampshire and western Maine before dark on Friday afternoon. Any snow that falls during the daytime will have a hard time sticking to the roads following highs into the low 40 degrees. But across the north, steadier periods of snow continue through the overnight hours and into the day on Saturday. Several inches of snow and slippery travel are more likely in these areas.
The system then moves out late in the afternoon on Saturday, with snow showers ending last across the northern mountains. High pressure quickly builds in and crosses Saturday night and Sunday. Clouds then begin to arrive by late Sunday afternoon ahead of the next system.
Key Message 4 Description
A strong low pressure system looks increasingly likely to track through the Great Lakes and then through Quebec Sunday night through Monday night. This will put New England solidly in the warm sector of the system. Rain and gusty southeast winds look increasingly likely from this system.
How much precipitation materializes remains a major question as the forcing from this system looks to mostly be limited to the passing warm front and then cold front. Tapping into deep moisture, upslope enhancement on the southern slopes, where air is forced upward by the terrain to create more rain, is to be expected.
A more significant precipitation would likely hinge on the development of a triple point low, a specific point where three different atmospheric boundaries meet to create a new storm center, closer to New England, so we will be watching for signs of this over the next few days.
The main concern with this system will be the potential for river rises given the recent snow melt. These impacts will mainly be driven by the precipitation, while much of the snowpack has been lost this past week.
Colder air then follows the system going into midweek next week.
Summary:
Southern New England will experience a sharp transition in seasons today as a powerful cold front moves through. Early morning warmth and rain will quickly give way to falling temperatures and gusty northwest winds. By this afternoon, remaining rain is expected to mix with sleet and transition to wet snow, which could impact the evening commute with reduced visibility and slushy conditions. After a briefly windy and drier Saturday, a more significant weather system is expected Sunday night into Monday, bringing heavy rain and the potential for minor river flooding.
Key Messages:
- Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms end early this morning, then passage of a sharp cold front allows for breezy northwest winds and falling temperatures today.
- Light rains change to a mix of rain and sleet and then to wet snow this afternoon into early tonight. Reduced visibilities likely during the PM commute. Minor accumulation, up to 2 inches, locally more possible, but pavement should be mostly wet.
- Scattered rain and elevation snow showers late Friday and Friday night, then drying out and becoming windy Saturday.
- Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday night into Monday night which may lead to minor river flooding. Strong winds possible late Monday and Monday evening.
- Dry and trending colder Tuesday into Wednesday.
What has changed since the last Forecast Update?
Increased snow and sleet accumulations for this afternoon into tonight to up to 2 inches, although much of this should fall on grassy non paved surfaces. Wind gusts were increased for Saturday and could warrant wind headlines. Growing confidence in heavy rain and strong winds early next week.
What this means for you
Prepare for a dramatic drop in temperature today, if you left the house in a light jacket this morning, you will likely want a heavier coat by this afternoon. The evening commute could be messy with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow creating slippery conditions on grassy surfaces and reduced visibility, though most main roads should remain wet. Looking ahead to Monday, heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding, particularly in low-lying areas or near rivers in Connecticut and Rhode Island. Gusty winds through the weekend and again on Monday could also make travel difficult for high-profile vehicles.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
712 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Synopsis
Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms end early this morning, then passage of a sharp cold front allows for breezy northwest winds and falling temperatures today. Light rains change to a mix of rain, sleet and then to wet snow this afternoon into early tonight. Reduced visibilities likely during the PM commute. Minor accumulation up to 2 inches, locally more possible, but pavement should be mostly wet. Scattered rain and elevation snow showers late Friday and Friday night, then drying out and becoming windy Saturday. Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday night into Monday night which may lead to minor river flooding. Strong winds possible late Monday and Monday evening. Dry and trending colder Tuesday into Wednesday.
What has Changed
Increased snow and sleet accumulations for this afternoon into tonight to up to 2 inches, although much of this should fall on grassy non paved surfaces. Wind gusts were increased for Saturday and could warrant wind headlines. Growing confidence in heavy rain and strong winds early next week.
Key Messages
Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms end early this morning, then passage of a sharp cold front allows for breezy northwest winds and falling temperatures today.
Light rains change to a mix of rain and sleet and then to wet snow this afternoon into early tonight. Reduced visibilities likely during the PM commute. Minor accumulation, up to 2 inches, locally more possible, but pavement should be mostly wet.
Scattered rain and elevation snow showers late Friday and Friday night, then drying out and becoming windy Saturday.
Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday night into Monday night which may lead to minor river flooding. Strong winds possible late Monday and Monday evening.
Dry and trending colder Tuesday into Wednesday.
Discussion
Key Message 1
Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms end early this morning, then passage of a sharp cold front allows for breezy northwest winds and falling temperatures today. Looking like we will be experiencing two seasons today. A strong cold front is working its way through central NY. Ahead of it is a moist and anomalously mild warm sector with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees and dew points in the upper 40s to mid 50s degrees in most of Southern New England. Areas of showers and even a few garden variety thunderstorms are around early this morning due to elevated instability. This is measured by MUCAPE, or Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy, which indicates the amount of fuel available for thunderstorms, with values as high as 1000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. The shower and embedded thunderstorm activity should come to an end by the pre dawn hours but could make for some difficult travel for morning commuters.
The cold front will then surge through Southern New England during the morning hours. Mainly light, if any, showers take place and some areas could end up dry for short intervals will accompany the front passage. But this is a cold front that has quite a punch of shallow cold advection, which is the movement of colder air into the region. Temperatures then stand to fall beginning this morning and through the day, and will also be accompanied by northwesterly wind gusts 25 to 40 mph. More shallow mixing really will cap how strong the gusts will get.
Gusts could punch as high as near Advisory level for a couple hours in the Berkshires early this morning immediately after frontal passage. But either way, expect a cloudy, breezy and raw day once the winds turn northwesterly, with highs occurring before the frontal passage and then steadily dropping into the 30s degrees through the day.
Key Message 2
Light rains change to a mix of rain and sleet and then to wet snow this afternoon into early tonight. Reduced visibilities likely during the PM commute. Minor accumulation, up to 2 inches, locally more possible, but pavement should be mostly wet. Although the cold front will have moved offshore by around noontime, a southern stream trough, or an elongated area of low pressure, over the lower MS Valley will help to draw another round of precipitation northeastward from the mid Atlantic into the Northeast in an ana frontal configuration, which means precipitation falls behind the surface cold front. This falls into the increasingly colder air and should facilitate rain to change to wintry precipitation as soon as early afternoon before moving offshore early tonight.
Precipitation falls as rain initially, but the strength of the shallow cold airmass suggests that as we move through the afternoon, rain ends up mixing with sleet and ice pellets as model soundings show temperatures aloft not cooling off as fast as the lowest 100 mb to surface do, but then eventually ending as a few hour period of snow.
There are a few moving parts here which cast some degree of uncertainty. One is when the precipitation begins to advance into the colder airmass; it does not look to be much precipitation, known technically as QPF or Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but when it begins will dictate how long changeovers occur. Finally, it is important to recognize that early March wintry accumulations on pavement tend to be governed by time of day and if rates become intense. Confidence in specific accumulations is not especially high and could be subject to adjustments. We opted for coatings to an inch for most, but as much as 2 inches of snow and sleet in interior Southern New England. Pavement should be mostly wet versus wintry though. But with that said, I would plan on the afternoon commute to be a pretty sloppy one due to wet roads and reduced visibilities, with precipitation ending by early tonight.
Key Message 3
Scattered rain and elevation snow showers late Friday and Friday night, then drying out and becoming windy Saturday. Quick moving northern stream shortwave, a ripple in the upper atmosphere, and clipper low pass to the north Friday night. Bulk of precipitation with this system will be focused across northern New England, but decent warm advection enhanced by a low level jet, a corridor of strong winds in the lower atmosphere, will support scattered rain or elevation snow showers late Friday and Friday night. Any snow accumulation will likely be focused across the Berkshires and Worcester Hills where up to an inch is possible.
The low level jet will bring some gusty pre frontal south to southwest winds to the south coast Friday evening, then the low pressure will push a cold front through Southern New England overnight with potential for strong post frontal wind gusts Saturday in the cold advection pattern. Forecast soundings show a well mixed boundary layer supportive of gusts to 35 to 45 mph with a few 50 mph gusts possible.
Key Message 4
Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday night into Monday night which may lead to minor river flooding. Strong winds possible late Monday and Monday evening. High amplitude trough approaches from the Great Lakes Monday before lifting across New England Tuesday. Strengthening low level jet ahead of the trough will bring anomalous moisture northward. PWAT, or Precipitable Water, which measures the total moisture available in the atmosphere, and wind anomalies are favorable for a heavy rainfall event.
This is likely to come in 2 waves. First late Sunday night into Monday morning, then another period late Monday and Monday night. Strong forcing for ascent along with elevated instability will support some heavy convective showers along with a few thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance suggests potential for 1 to 2 inches rainfall across CT, RI and SE MA. 90th percentile of the ensemble distribution is showing 2 to 3 inches which would represent a localized worst case scenario.
Key Message 5
Dry and trending colder Tuesday into Wednesday. Cold front is forecast to be east of New England by 0800 EDT Tuesday with much drier air moving in from the west. Mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday but blustery and cooler weather in the cold advection pattern.
Coldest day will be Wednesday as the upper trough and core of the coldest air aloft settles over New England with expected temperatures several degrees below normal.

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