Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**638 AM EDT Wednesday July 1 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Strong to severe thunderstorms did not develop overnight and early this morning as many of the short range forecast models had suggested. Another opportunity for thunderstorms exists late today through Thursday morning, but those models have reduced the expected storm coverage and intensity. Forecasters will continue watching whether that trend continues while the region also deals with the ongoing heat wave.

**Key Messages**

1. Today will be the start of a prolonged heat event through at least Friday across northern New England. The heat peaks on Thursday, with only a gradual cool down expected into the weekend. Nighttime lows in the 70s will provide little relief, allowing heat stress to build over several days.

2. Heat and humidity will provide fuel for thunderstorms through Thursday, with storms possible during both the day and overnight. Placement, timing, and coverage remain uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of New Hampshire and a Marginal Risk elsewhere through tonight. A Marginal Risk also remains in effect for Thursday.

3. The ridge responsible for the extreme heat begins to weaken late Friday through the weekend, allowing temperatures to gradually trend lower. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

There have been no significant changes in the forecast thinking for the prolonged heat event beginning today and lasting through at least Friday. All heat related alerts remain in effect.

Showers and thunderstorms moving across the region this morning will give way to a mix of sunshine and clouds. Most high resolution forecast models, known as Convective Allowing Models, or CAMs, keep much of the area free of showers and thunderstorms during the hottest part of the afternoon. One exception is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, or HRRR, which suggests elevated wildfire smoke may drift across the region late this afternoon and evening. This smoke could reduce the amount of sunshine reaching the ground somewhat, but hot and humid conditions are still expected.

Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the 90s while dew points remain in the low to middle 70s, producing very uncomfortable conditions. A southerly wind coming off the ocean will provide some cooling near the coast, mainly from Cape Porpoise northward.

Forecast models continue to show limited thunderstorm development during the daytime Thursday, so there have been no significant changes to the expected temperatures, humidity, or heat index values. Thursday still appears to be the hottest day of the event, with heat index values expected to exceed 110 degrees. Winds will become more southwesterly, reducing the cooling influence normally provided by sea breezes.

The upper level ridge of high pressure begins weakening late Thursday into Friday, allowing a cold front to gradually move south from Canada. This front will not immediately bring much cooler temperatures, but west winds should mix somewhat drier air toward the surface, allowing humidity to decrease slightly. Even so, conditions will remain hot and humid, and west winds will limit the development of cooling sea breezes.

Overnight low temperatures in southern New Hampshire are expected to remain in the middle to upper 70s Wednesday night through Friday night, with temperatures elsewhere also remaining in the 70s. If thunderstorms move through, temperatures could briefly fall into the upper 60s or lower 70s. The extended duration of this heat event makes it more dangerous than a single day of extreme heat. Temperatures are expected to gradually decrease through the weekend and into early next week as an upper level trough, an area of cooler and less stable air aloft, becomes more influential across northern New England.

**Key Message 2 Description**

Satellite imagery this morning shows several clusters of thunderstorms moving around the large ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. High resolution forecast models have struggled to accurately predict how these storms will evolve, leading to lower confidence in their exact timing and location.

Current guidance suggests some showers and thunderstorms will move across the region through about 8 AM to 10 AM EDT, mainly from the White Mountains into coastal southwestern Maine. The overall severe weather threat with this morning activity appears low, although a few thunderstorms remain possible.

The overall forecast through Thursday remains largely unchanged. The atmosphere will contain more than enough instability, measured by Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE, to support thunderstorm development. Combined with favorable wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction with height, some storms could become strong or severe.

The biggest challenge is the lack of a strong weather system to trigger widespread thunderstorm development. Forecast models continue to suggest only scattered storm coverage during the daytime today. Some guidance hints that a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS, a large organized cluster of thunderstorms, could approach from the northwest later this evening. Because forecast models have not handled the current storm activity well, confidence remains lower than normal. The Storm Prediction Center continues to indicate a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Upstate New York and New Hampshire, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere.

Conditions favorable for thunderstorms continue Thursday, although forecast models still show relatively limited daytime storm development. A cold front dropping south from Canada may provide a better focus for thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the region.

**Key Message 3 Description**

A gradual cooling trend begins over the weekend as the weather pattern slowly changes. Saturday and Sunday will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dew points stay in the 60s, keeping humidity noticeable.

The changing weather pattern will also support additional showers and thunderstorms during the weekend, although it remains too early to determine their exact timing and location. By Monday, more meaningful relief from the heat appears likely, with afternoon high temperatures returning to the 80s.