Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 137 PM EDT Saturday, August 15, 2026**

**What has changed**

No significant changes to the forecast.

**Key Messages**

1. Very comfortable temperatures this weekend with mainly dry conditions. There is a moderate risk for rip currents this weekend.

2. Rain returns late Sunday into Monday, followed by quieter weather through most of next week.

3. Seasonably warm temperatures and moderate humidity return through the middle of next week, followed by increasing shower chances late in the week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Very comfortable temperatures this weekend with mainly dry conditions**

Clear skies and light winds early this morning are supporting strong cooling at the surface overnight. Lows fall into the 50s across cooler outlying locations, while urban centers remain near 60 degrees by sunrise. Areas of valley fog have developed and can be seen on satellite imagery using Nighttime Microphysics RGB, a satellite technique that helps identify fog and low clouds. The fog will gradually fill the valleys, but morning fog should dissipate with daytime heating by mid-morning.

Quiet weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure from northern Canada settles across the Northeast through the first half of Sunday. There remains a very low chance for an isolated shower from mid to late afternoon, mainly across eastern Massachusetts, as a strong disturbance several miles above the surface, known as a mid-level shortwave, passes near the eastern edge of the region. This system also contains a pocket of colder air several miles above the surface.

The atmosphere remains quite dry, with precipitation moisture levels, known technically as PWATs, between 0.6 and 0.8 inches. Because of this dry air, the chance for a stray shower is very low. The stronger disturbance is more likely to produce additional clouds than meaningful rainfall across eastern areas.

Temperatures remain seasonable, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another cool night is expected Saturday night, with clear skies and light winds supporting strong overnight cooling. Lows fall into the lower to middle 50s across cooler outlying locations, while urban centers remain near 60 degrees.

Despite the pleasant weather, a moderate risk for rip currents is expected today and Sunday. Those heading to the beach should remain aware of local conditions and check with lifeguards or beach staff regarding rip current risks at their specific location.

High pressure begins shifting offshore Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. Increasing warm air moving into the region will bring more clouds during the afternoon, while temperatures remain seasonable in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Humidity will gradually increase as dew points rise into the lower 60s. Most, if not all, of the daylight hours should remain dry, with the next opportunity for rainfall arriving Sunday night into Monday.

**Key Message 2, Rain returns late Sunday into Monday, followed by quieter weather through most of next week**

Confidence remains high that most, if not all, of Sunday daylight hours will remain dry. Rain arrives late Sunday, with the steadiest rain expected overnight into early Monday. Forecast models are now getting into the range where higher-resolution guidance can better resolve the timing and placement of the rain.

Some guidance brings rain into western Massachusetts and western Connecticut as early as late afternoon, before sunset. However, ensemble guidance, which uses many forecast model runs to assess the range of possible outcomes, supports a later arrival, with measurable rainfall generally reaching the region between 8 PM and midnight.

Confidence is increasing in the overall development of the system. One area of low pressure is likely to pass across northern New England while a second low tracks south of New England across the Mid-Atlantic. This setup is also supported by ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails for precipitation. These are forecast tools that help identify areas where rainfall amounts could be unusually high compared with historical model guidance and where the potential for extreme precipitation is increasing.

With southern New England positioned between these two areas of low pressure, confidence in the highest rainfall totals occurring directly across the region has decreased. This lowers the threat for widespread flash flooding.

However, precipitation moisture levels, known technically as PWATs, increase to between 1.8 and 2.1 inches overnight into Monday. This will support the potential for locally heavier downpours. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, level 1 of 4, remains in place for much of New England Sunday night into Monday because of the potential for localized flash flooding.

Forecast guidance currently supports rainfall totals generally ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches across southern New England, although locally higher amounts are possible, especially where heavier downpours occur.

Given the expected clouds and showers, Monday will be cooler, with highs generally ranging from the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. It will also be fairly humid, with elevated dew points producing noticeably sticky conditions.

**Key Message 3, Seasonably warm temperatures and moderate humidity return through the middle of next week, followed by increasing shower chances late in the week**

Drier air moves in from the northwest Monday night into Tuesday, leading to another dry stretch from Tuesday through Wednesday and possibly into the first half of Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region.

Temperatures remain seasonable, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and generally comfortable humidity as dew points remain in the lower to middle 60s.

Ensemble guidance continues to signal a transition toward more unsettled weather late in the week, with shower chances returning. Temperatures could also trend slightly below normal.